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Prediction markets for Pyth

Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027?

Nov 26, 12:22 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3.77%chance

364378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2891

837

Will Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2026

May 5, 2:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.21%chance

193591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3804

842

Will Python be replaced as the go-to programming language for AI development by the end of 2040?

Jan 5, 8:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.68%chance

463528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1811

685

In what year will Python 4.0 be released?

Apr 2, 4:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

192110

OptionProbability

2033 or later (or never)

2027

2026

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2025

2024

84

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

0

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

70.38%chance

441465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

962

There will be a Python6.9 before the year 2069

Feb 14, 8:34 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

12.55%chance

211076

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1456

891

Will Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2030

May 5, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.45%chance

18724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

888

When will Python lose the first position on TIOBE Index leaderboard?

Mar 18, 11:44 AMFeb 1, 10:59 PM

14712

OptionProbability

Before 2031

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

50

50

46

41

32

19

0

0

When will Python 3.13 readiness reach 75%?

May 13, 7:36 PMMay 13, 7:34 PM

3591

OptionProbability

Before January 2028

Before July 2027

Before July 2026

Before January 2027

Before July 2025

Before January 2026

94

76

66

66

1

1

When will Python 3.14 readiness reach 75%?

May 13, 7:37 PMMay 13, 7:37 PM

2507

OptionProbability

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

Before July 2027

Before July 2026

Before July 2025

Before January 2026

83

66

66

34

1

1

Will "Pythia" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 10:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.34%chance

4164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

980

Will Python 3.10 reach 90% readiness before end of life?

May 13, 7:41 PMOct 4, 11:59 PM

20.9%chance

7152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

51

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