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Prediction markets for Q1

In which quarters of 2025 will US GDP contract? (3rd estimate)

May 1, 5:31 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

3732936

OptionProbability

Q1

Q3

Q4

Q2

100

30

29

3

When will Anthropic IPO?

Jul 29, 5:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

1222222

Will Q1 of 2024 be the last quarter in which the news is not entirely full of AI drama until 2030?

Nov 23, 8:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.42%chance

527321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2826

814

Bachelor Season 30 on ABC by Q1 2026?

May 24, 8:04 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

90.61%chance

42107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3107

322

Will AMD have a higher market share of CPUs (all CPUs) than Intel in Q1 2030?

Feb 3, 1:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69.36%chance

161820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1641

364

Will US real GDP in Q1 2030 be at least 50% greater than in Q1 2025?

Feb 6, 10:34 PMFeb 14, 4:59 AM

38.77%chance

101640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

796

Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028

Sep 23, 3:41 PMApr 2, 9:59 PM

79.9%chance

15407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

945

Which prongs of the "3-3-3" economic plan will the Trump administration achieve by the end of Q1, 2028?

Dec 16, 7:20 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

16366

OptionProbability

Increase domestic energy production by 3 million barrel of oil equivalents per day

Reduce budget deficit to 3% of GDP

Real GDP growth of 3% per annum

53

12

12

Pierre Poilievre wins Q1 2026 leadership review?

Jul 28, 6:03 PMJan 30, 12:59 AM

39.12%chance

2274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

Huawei gpus will exceed nvidia gpus in at least 3 benchmark tests by Q1 2026

Jul 29, 6:50 PMJan 2, 12:59 AM

10.31%chance

5195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Will Union Square in San Francisco have a retail direct vacancy rate lower than 13% in Q1 2026?

Feb 13, 6:49 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

30.77%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will San Francisco have a retail vacancy rate lower than 4.5% in Q1 2026?

Feb 13, 6:38 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

29.39%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

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