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Prediction markets for Q2

When will Anthropic IPO?

Jul 29, 5:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

73170145

OptionProbability

2026 Q4

2026 Q3

2027 Q1

2026 Q2

2027 Q2

2029 or later or not at all

2027 Q3

2028

2026 Q1

2027 Q4

2025 Q4

2025 Q3

22

19

16

9

8

7

5

5

4

4

1

0

In which quarters of 2025 will US GDP contract? (3rd estimate)

May 1, 5:31 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

47119148

OptionProbability

Q1

Q4

Q2

Q3

100

1

0

0

When will Twitter actually "collapse"?

Jul 1, 9:17 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18528973

OptionProbability

Not before 2027

Q1 2024

Q4 2023

2025

2026

Q3 2023

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

87

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?

May 29, 8:55 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

2%chance

162451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

26

[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Jan 6, 11:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

22.86%chance

121974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6561

4573

Will the UK build >1.5m new homes by the end of Q2 2029

May 8, 11:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.9%chance

191293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

824

471

What will be the Warner Discovery situation by 2027 Q2?

Dec 17, 1:40 PMJun 30, 1:27 PM

7955

OptionProbability

Acquired by Netflix

Purchase stalled bureaucratically

None of the above

Acquired by Paramount

Bankrupt proceedings initiated

58

16

10

9

6

Will Finland recognize a state of Palestine before the next Parliamentary Elections (Q2 2027)

Sep 8, 3:43 PMApr 17, 11:59 PM

12.57%chance

11683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

38

Fortune 500 company attributes >10% productivity gains to AI by Q2 2026?

Aug 8, 12:43 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

61.57%chance

10631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

790

Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2026?

Jun 8, 7:19 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

30.16%chance

11452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027

Jan 12, 5:58 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

40.23%chance

5294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1219

821

Will any UK cabinet ministers resign in Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4 of 2026?

Dec 21, 10:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6262

OptionProbability

Q1 (Jan 1st - Apr 1st)

Any part of 2026

Q2 (Apr 1st - Jul 1st)

Q3 (Jul 1st - Oct 1st)

Q4 (Oct 1st - Jan 1st 2027)

89

89

85

58

58

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