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Prediction markets for Q2

When will Anthropic IPO?

Jul 29, 5:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

81192818

OptionProbability

2026 Q4

2027 Q1

2027 Q2

2026 Q3

2027 Q3

2028

2029 or later or not at all

2027 Q4

2026 Q2

2025 Q4

2026 Q1

2025 Q3

21

21

14

13

8

7

7

5

3

1

1

0

What will be the Warner Discovery situation by 2027 Q2?

Dec 17, 1:40 PMJun 30, 1:27 PM

124398

OptionProbability

Acquired by Paramount

Purchase stalled bureaucratically

None of the above

Acquired by Netflix

Bankrupt proceedings initiated

73

11

10

3

3

Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?

May 29, 8:55 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

2%chance

162451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

26

[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Jan 6, 11:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

24.33%chance

162366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6197

4686

Will the UK build >1.5m new homes by the end of Q2 2029

May 8, 11:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.9%chance

191293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

824

471

Will Finland recognize a state of Palestine before the next Parliamentary Elections (Q2 2027)

Sep 8, 3:43 PMApr 17, 11:59 PM

9.79%chance

11723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

304

33

Fortune 500 company attributes >10% productivity gains to AI by Q2 2026?

Aug 8, 12:43 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

62.49%chance

11656

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Wagerup gallium T12M production exceeds 10 tonnes as of Q2 2027

Jan 12, 5:58 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

45.11%chance

6569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

907

Will samarium oxide prices increase by more than 25% globally by Q2 2026?

Feb 21, 12:03 PMAug 20, 12:03 PM

50.17%chance

4558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

899

Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2026?

Jun 8, 7:19 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

30%chance

15517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will any UK cabinet ministers resign in Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4 of 2026?

Dec 21, 10:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7303

OptionProbability

Any part of 2026

Q2 (Apr 1st - Jul 1st)

Q3 (Jul 1st - Oct 1st)

Q4 (Oct 1st - Jan 1st 2027)

Q1 (Jan 1st - Apr 1st)

89

67

58

58

47

Will cobalt and nickel scrap prices stabilize by Q2 2024?

Feb 22, 9:02 AMJun 22, 9:01 AM

53.3%chance

399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

936

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