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Prediction markets for Q4

United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?

Jan 21, 11:59 PMMar 27, 10:59 AM

3.43%chance

5016195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5306

188

Tesla Q4 2025 car deliveries?

Sep 22, 10:08 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

1211483

OptionProbability

400,000 - 424,999

425,000 - 449,999

375,000 - 399,999

450,000 - 499,999

350,000 - 374,999

300,000 - 349,999

Below 300,000

500,000+

27

24

15

14

7

5

4

4

US effective tariff rate in Q4 2025?

Apr 21, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

415109

OptionProbability

> 0%

> 3%

> 6%

> 9%

> 12%

> 15%

> 18%

> 21%

99

99

95

60

35

32

14

8

Will AWS remain the market share leader in cloud infrastructure services by Q4 2025?

Mar 22, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.79%chance

141197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1891

832

Will the US’s public debt exceed 125% of its GDP by Q4 2025?

Jan 27, 6:17 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

54.89%chance

9748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

755

Will tariffs in Q4 2025 be below what they were in Q4 2024?

Apr 7, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.78%chance

5665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

742

13

US effective tariff rate in Q4 2026?

Nov 21, 10:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4628

OptionProbability

> 0%

> 3%

> 6%

> 9%

> 12%

> 15%

> 18%

> 21%

98

92

88

50

50

50

7

1

How much will Roblox beat its q4 2025 bookings guidance by

Nov 15, 7:25 PMFeb 25, 11:59 PM

2325

OptionProbability

Beat by 16-18%

Beat by 14-16%

Miss by 1%+

Beat by 12-14%

Beat by 10-12%

Beat by 5-10%

Beat by 18-20%

Beat by 20-22%

Beat by 22-24%

Other

19

12

12

11

10

9

7

7

7

7

Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q4 2025?

Oct 1, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.92%chance

4241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

341

29

US Q4 GDP Positive?

Oct 14, 7:57 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

78.28%chance

8177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

53

Will Facebook's monthly active users decline by Q4 2025?

Jul 2, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62.94%chance

892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

135

Discord monthly active usership <100M Q4 2029?

Apr 29, 1:51 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.02%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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