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Q4 News

When will Anthropic IPO?

Jul 29, 5:37 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

188441972

OptionProbability

2026 Q4

2027 Q1

2027 Q2

2029 or later or not at all

2027 Q3

2028

2025 Q3

2025 Q4

2026 Q1

2026 Q2

2026 Q3

2027 Q4

86

6

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Twitter actually "collapse"?

Jul 1, 9:17 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18734732

OptionProbability

Not before 2027

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q4 2024

2025

2026

Q3 2024

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

216583

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

2028 or later

Q1 2027

Q4 2027

Anduril will not IPO

Q4 2026

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

24

20

20

10

10

7

5

1

1

1

1

1

UK unemployment rate in Q4 2026 per ONS

Nov 27, 9:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

134473

OptionProbability

>5.0% to 5.3%

>5.3% to 5.6%

>4.7% to 5.0%

>5.6%

Below 4.7%

51

21

17

10

1

Will Anthropic’s revenue growth re-accelerate in Q4 2026?

Oct 15, 10:29 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

35.69%chance

131541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2684

1490

Anthropic Q4 2027 revenue

Aug 20, 2:20 PMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

61475

OptionProbability

$60B to $80B

$40B to $60B

$80B to $100B

$100B to $120B

<$40B

>=$120B

26

19

19

13

12

12

US effective tariff rate in Q4 2026?

Nov 21, 10:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

131376

OptionProbability

> 0%

> 3%

> 6%

> 9%

> 15%

> 12%

> 18%

> 21%

99

98

68

7

4

3

3

1

Will any UK cabinet ministers resign in Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4 of 2026?

Dec 21, 10:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9617

OptionProbability

Q2 (Apr 1st - Jul 1st)

Q3 (Jul 1st - Oct 1st)

Any part of 2026

Q4 (Oct 1st - Jan 1st 2027)

Q1 (Jan 1st - Apr 1st)

100

100

100

52

0

Global AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026

May 14, 7:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

5321

OptionProbability

20%

30%

None of the above

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

36

23

9

7

5

5

5

5

4

NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026

May 19, 12:12 PMJan 1, 10:47 AM

26.59%chance

13278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

62

Discord monthly active usership <100M Q4 2029?

Apr 29, 1:51 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.4%chance

3255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will imports as a percentage of GDP (seasonally adjusted) be over 16% in Q4 2027?

Nov 6, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.09%chance

16

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

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