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Prediction markets for Quantum Day

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

811

Will CNBC publish a video segment with "quantum" in the title within the next 45 days?

Jan 27, 6:20 AMMar 13, 6:17 AM

74.34%chance

112269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1702

588

Will the European Commission publish a new quantum strategy document within the next 60 days?

Jan 26, 8:22 PMMar 27, 8:21 PM

70.56%chance

192177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1548

646

Will the UK government mention quantum computing in an official policy speech within the next month?

Jan 30, 7:09 AMMar 2, 7:04 AM

50.09%chance

362014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1965

1625

Will Google announce a new quantum-related milestone within the next 60 days?

Jan 20, 9:35 PMMar 21, 9:31 PM

32.23%chance

131721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

690

What will be the highest upvote count achieved by a quantum-related Reddit post withinthe next 60 days?

Jan 20, 2:54 PMMar 21, 2:49 PM

14924

OptionProbability

B) 5,000–9,999

A) Under 5,000

C) 10,000–19,999

D) 20,000–49,999

E) 50,000+

44

38

16

1

1

Will IBM publish a blog post announcing a quantum roadmap update within 30 days (by Feb 17, 2026)?

Jan 18, 1:07 PMFeb 16, 11:59 PM

35.51%chance

8889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1348

742

Will OpenAI publish content referencing quantum computing within the next 30 days?

Jan 30, 10:47 PMMar 3, 10:45 PM

9.52%chance

30888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

308

32

How many YouTube videos with over 500k views will include "quantum" in the title within the next 60 days?

Jan 12, 6:58 PMMar 13, 6:58 PM

11841

OptionProbability

A) 0

B) 1

D) 4–5

E) 6+

C) 2–3

42

29

23

22

14

How many times will Bloomberg publish articles mentioning "quantum computing" withinthe next 30 days?

Jan 12, 10:33 PMFeb 11, 10:30 PM

14575

OptionProbability

C) 2 articles

B) 1 article

D) 3 articles

E) 4 or more articles

A) 0 articles

39

34

14

8

4

Will Google announce a new quantum-related milestone within the next 60 days?

Jan 31, 1:10 PMApr 1, 1:08 PM

37.17%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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