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Prediction markets for Questions

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.98%chance

156585645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18319

1102

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029

Oct 1, 3:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

99%chance

3417565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2200

906

Will this question get 100k traders before Manifold shuts down?

Apr 18, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.42%chance

157995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2540

394

Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?

Aug 12, 7:05 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

175229

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4-5

6-7

60

17

7

6

6

4

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.48%chance

413065

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

824

Will it be possible for users to invest in manifold questions before 2026?

May 18, 10:29 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

44.03%chance

111061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

887

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will anyone alive when this question was made, be alive when it ends?

Jan 1, 1:53 PMJan 8, 10:59 PM

30.53%chance

12776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

842

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

40.78%chance

4235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Will the validity of the Consumer Price Index as a measure of inflation be widely questioned during 2025? #Economics

Jan 22, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.11%chance

3175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

888

Will the % chance of this question be positive or negative on Jan 1 2026.

Jan 16, 7:19 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

38.52%chance

6147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

AV Question #1: [Private]

Jun 10, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

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