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Prediction markets for Quick Actions
Prediction markets for Quick Actions
2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.
Mar 11, 12:09 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
71.93%
chance
16
3414
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1009
979
Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Dec 24, 3:53 AM
Feb 1, 7:59 AM
27.15%
chance
17
792
Option
Votes
NO
YES
990
970
Will Norway announce a referendum about joining EU during Trumps Second Term (2025–2029)?
Feb 2, 8:56 PM
Feb 1, 10:59 PM
9%
chance
15
485
Option
Votes
YES
NO
318
31
Will America send troops to Iran?
Jan 13, 4:44 PM
Dec 31, 4:42 PM
18.3%
chance
13
375
Option
Votes
YES
NO
211
47
Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?
Jan 14, 11:47 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
73%
chance
8
113
Option
Votes
NO
YES
164
61
"The Invincible" by Stanisław Lem
Jul 30, 12:22 PM
Jul 30, 9:59 PM
0
0
Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!
Mar 9, 8:51 PM
0
0
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