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Prediction markets for Quick Cross
Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?
Mar 14, 8:19 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM
56.46%chance
18119332
OptionVotes
1139
878
OptionProbability
38
21
19
13
7
1
0
Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
28.65%chance
18812
OptionVotes
1010
919
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM
59.88%chance
19407
OptionVotes
1081
928
What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?
Jul 14, 7:07 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM
39.5%chance
556
OptionProbability
265
222
Will Anthropic be the first among the "Big Three" private AI labs to achieve profitable quarterly earnings?
Jun 15, 4:46 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
62.66%chance
535
OptionVotes
130
77