Quiet News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543871

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

Mar 14, 8:19 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

60%chance

16817790

OptionVotes

YES

1225

816

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

336494

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026?

Mar 7, 3:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

875012

OptionVotes

YES

1802

1169

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?

Jun 9, 10:52 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

13.15%chance

252331

OptionVotes

YES

1671

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027?

Jun 9, 10:54 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

8.49%chance

171440

OptionVotes

YES

1707

Will my tinnitus be gone by 2050?

Dec 1, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.32%chance

71152

OptionVotes

YES

1207

828

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

In his life, will Dan Schneider ever work on another kids show?

Apr 17, 12:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17.69%chance

15752

OptionVotes

YES

1534

827

Which phrase will be named Oxford Word of the Year 2026?

Jan 9, 8:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4363

OptionProbability

None of the above

AI fatigue

Synthetic truth

Digital burnout

Quiet quitting

Will Hersey's revive the Hershey's Gold candy bar by Jan 1st 2028?

Dec 2, 7:21 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

60.56%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

1053

987

Nintendo cancels Project Rockstock (NSO playtest)?

May 2, 12:49 PMJun 1, 12:46 PM

37.94%chance

447

OptionVotes

YES

128

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Prediction markets for Quiet

Prediction markets for Quiet

Prediction markets for Quiet

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026?

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027?

Will my tinnitus be gone by 2050?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

In his life, will Dan Schneider ever work on another kids show?

Which phrase will be named Oxford Word of the Year 2026?

Will Hersey's revive the Hershey's Gold candy bar by Jan 1st 2028?

Nintendo cancels Project Rockstock (NSO playtest)?

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