Quiet News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

Mar 14, 8:19 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

56.46%chance

18119332

OptionVotes

YES

1139

878

Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026?

Mar 7, 3:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

918788

OptionVotes

YES

1547

1342

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

337703

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?

Jun 9, 10:52 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

15%chance

262373

OptionVotes

YES

1633

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027?

Jun 9, 10:54 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

8.49%chance

171440

OptionVotes

YES

1707

Will my tinnitus be gone by 2050?

Dec 1, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.19%chance

71167

OptionVotes

YES

1230

813

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

In his life, will Dan Schneider ever work on another kids show?

Apr 17, 12:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.82%chance

151002

OptionVotes

YES

1784

779

Which phrase will be named Oxford Word of the Year 2026?

Jan 9, 8:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5463

OptionProbability

None of the above

AI fatigue

Synthetic truth

Digital burnout

Quiet quitting

Will Hersey's revive the Hershey's Gold candy bar by Jan 1st 2028?

Dec 2, 7:21 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

49.04%chance

14363

OptionVotes

YES

1257

738

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.88%chance

6274

OptionVotes

YES

125

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Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026?

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?

Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027?

Will my tinnitus be gone by 2050?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

In his life, will Dan Schneider ever work on another kids show?

Which phrase will be named Oxford Word of the Year 2026?

Will Hersey's revive the Hershey's Gold candy bar by Jan 1st 2028?

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

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