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Prediction markets for R1 AI

When will Deepseek R2 be released?

Mar 25, 12:18 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

3112835

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.44%chance

443737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2178

414

When will the Rabbit R1 stop working?

Jan 11, 6:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

472902

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030+

2024

27

25

16

11

11

9

1

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM

61.96%chance

261964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

784

Best public AI model uses "We" in CoT by EOY 2025?

Jun 1, 7:38 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

21.83%chance

121345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1892

528

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.77%chance

9913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

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