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Prediction markets for R1 AI

When will the Rabbit R1 stop working?

Jan 11, 6:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

485070

OptionProbability

2027

2029

2028

2030+

2026

2025

2024

25

22

21

19

9

2

1

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM

43.18%chance

364726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F

Jul 18, 3:52 AMJun 30, 4:59 AM

3603

OptionProbability

Converge — similarity score ≥ 22/30

No significant change — 17–21

Diverge — ≤ 16

53

33

14

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

58

Will DeepSeek v5 release before 2028

Aug 3, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.2%chance

3232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

322

31

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Group relative rewards in RL (e.g. GRPO) teaches AIs to be spiteful, in publication by EOY 2027.

Sep 27, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

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