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Prediction markets for R1 AI

When will the Rabbit R1 stop working?

Jan 11, 6:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

474705

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2029

2028

2030+

2025

2024

27

22

18

17

12

2

1

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM

60.76%chance

271984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

804

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

will christopher sakalyiski make usaaio camp

Apr 4, 3:08 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

7356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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