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Prediction markets for R2

R2 / V4-Thinking METR 50% time horizon

Aug 8, 11:09 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

3113471

OptionProbability

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

4h - 5h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

3.5h - 4h

3h - 3.5h

2h - 2.5h

<1.5h

1.5h - 2h

2.5h - 3h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

>=12h

20

16

14

13

7

6

5

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?

Feb 10, 8:33 AMSep 30, 11:59 AM

1.02%chance

3513172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9852

102

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.52%chance

398835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8049

124

R2-D2 by 2030?

Apr 9, 11:09 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

40.34%chance

312024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

846

Will Rivian R2 deliveries begin before June 15, 2026?

Mar 8, 4:18 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

67.88%chance

171244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1602

448

What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months?

Mar 15, 9:29 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM

81002

OptionProbability

60-69%

70-79%

50-59%

40-49%

30-39%

20-29%

80-89%

27

20

17

14

11

10

1

What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 24 months?

Mar 15, 9:17 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM

7544

OptionProbability

60-69%

50-59%

70-79%

40-49%

30-39%

20-29%

80-89%

30

20

18

13

11

7

1

Will Rivian R2 earn IIHS Top Safety Pick+?

Apr 22, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

47.61%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

953

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