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Prediction markets for RAG

RagePope Stock (Permanent)

Nov 11, 5:36 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

439144785

OptionProbability

YES

NO

5111

2504

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

37.29%chance

2515523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

437

Jeffrey Epstein fowl play confirmed in 2025?

Jul 12, 2:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.98%chance

10913710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4106

339

Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?

Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM

75.15%chance

201079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1739

575

Attention + Diffusion + Search = AGI?

May 8, 11:00 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

16.84%chance

10271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

442

84

Attention + Diffusion + Search + RL = AGI?

May 9, 1:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

33.55%chance

5182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

176

Will Taylor Swift announce her engagement (vs. it leaking)?

Aug 27, 12:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.75%chance

550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

99

Attention + Search + RL = AGI?

Dec 30, 2:13 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.65%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

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