Rally News

Will America send troops to Iran?

Jan 13, 4:44 PMDec 31, 4:42 PM

37.58%chance

10016240

OptionVotes

YES

1239

1005

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

606627

OptionProbability

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

Mar 23, 11:51 AMApr 24, 11:59 PM

9.01%chance

162948

OptionVotes

YES

2699

If Democrats win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block Democratic winners from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

26.98%chance

61825

OptionVotes

YES

7405

5078

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Sep 18, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.62%chance

51534

OptionVotes

YES

216

Will Barack Obama participate in a rally for Abdul El Sayed?

Aug 6, 9:16 PMNov 4, 8:15 PM

45.6%chance

14310

OptionVotes

YES

109

Will Joe Biden Speak at a Rally for a Senate or House candidate in Oct or Nov 2026?

Feb 13, 7:38 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

35.34%chance

13155

OptionVotes

YES

202

112

Will Barack Obama participate in a rally for Abdul El Sayed?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMNov 4, 8:15 PM

44.08%chance

6124

OptionVotes

YES

114

Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026

Sep 16, 9:06 PMOct 4, 5:15 PM

134

OptionProbability

Elfyn Evans

Sami Pajari

Oliver Solberg

Adrien Fourmaux

Sébastien Ogier

Thierry Neuville

Takamoto Katsuta

Will Joe Biden Speak at a Rally for a Senate or House candidate in Oct or Nov 2026?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

315

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will Hasan Piker have interviewed or rallied with the eventual 2028 Democratic nominee?

May 24, 10:44 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

213

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will Hasan Piker have interviewed or rallied with the eventual 2028 Democratic nominee?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Rally News

Prediction markets for Rally

Prediction markets for Rally

Prediction markets for Rally

Will America send troops to Iran?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

If Democrats win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block Democratic winners from being seated?

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Will Barack Obama participate in a rally for Abdul El Sayed?

Will Joe Biden Speak at a Rally for a Senate or House candidate in Oct or Nov 2026?

Will Barack Obama participate in a rally for Abdul El Sayed?

Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026

Will Joe Biden Speak at a Rally for a Senate or House candidate in Oct or Nov 2026?

Will Hasan Piker have interviewed or rallied with the eventual 2028 Democratic nominee?

Will Hasan Piker have interviewed or rallied with the eventual 2028 Democratic nominee?

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