Rally News

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

24642

5236

Will America send troops to Iran?

Jan 13, 4:44 PMDec 31, 4:42 PM

18.65%chance

11019282

OptionVotes

YES

2157

666

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

606627

OptionProbability

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

Jul 8, 9:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12%chance

425032

OptionVotes

YES

2261

697

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

Mar 23, 11:51 AMApr 24, 11:59 PM

6.54%chance

183382

OptionVotes

YES

2924

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Sep 18, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.62%chance

51534

OptionVotes

YES

216

Bitcoin below 50k before July 2027?

Aug 25, 12:45 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

32.11%chance

181221

OptionVotes

YES

1454

688

Will France cut off funding to Ukraine in 2027?

Oct 18, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.89%chance

14743

OptionVotes

YES

1336

748

Will Joe Biden Speak at a Rally for a Senate or House candidate in Oct or Nov 2026?

Feb 13, 7:38 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

29.42%chance

16185

OptionVotes

YES

232

Will Joe Biden Speak at a Rally for a Senate or House candidate in Oct or Nov 2026?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

31%chance

640

OptionVotes

YES

116

Will Hasan Piker have interviewed or rallied with the eventual 2028 Democratic nominee?

May 24, 10:44 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

213

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will Hasan Piker have interviewed or rallied with the eventual 2028 Democratic nominee?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Rally News

Prediction markets for Rally

Prediction markets for Rally

Prediction markets for Rally

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Will America send troops to Iran?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Chechnya confronts Russia before the end of Russia-Ukraine war?

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Bitcoin below 50k before July 2027?

Will France cut off funding to Ukraine in 2027?

Will Joe Biden Speak at a Rally for a Senate or House candidate in Oct or Nov 2026?

Will Joe Biden Speak at a Rally for a Senate or House candidate in Oct or Nov 2026?

Will Hasan Piker have interviewed or rallied with the eventual 2028 Democratic nominee?

Will Hasan Piker have interviewed or rallied with the eventual 2028 Democratic nominee?

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