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Rapid Release News

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

180540242

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

GPT-6.5

Any model announced before 2027

Claude 3.5 Opus

OpenAI o4

Fable/Mythos 5.5

Grok 5

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

GPT-6

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Gemini 3.5

Gemini 4

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

OpenAI Astra (first model released)

90

88

88

87

85

85

84

83

82

80

79

78

69

65

47

32

25

13

10

10

9

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

776

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9%chance

158573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Starship experiences sub 2 km RUD by 2026?

May 14, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.44%chance

158539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5295

189

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

108006

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

27

23

21

14

9

5

2

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56226

OptionProbability

December 2026 (or later)

June 2026

July 2026

May 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

24

11

11

10

10

10

10

10

1

1

1

1

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

32.08%chance

193014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

154

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.1%chance

281123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

993

955

Chappell Roan scores Billboard #1 single in 2026?

Oct 20, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.4%chance

11450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

555

65

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

58

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

9157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

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