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Prediction markets for Rapid Release

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72172465

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced before 2028

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6

Grok 5

Any Claude 5 model

Gemini 3

DeepSeek-V4

OpenAI o4

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any model announced before 2026

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

87

79

74

73

68

67

51

50

34

30

28

17

16

13

12

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75280

OptionProbability

Mostly Positive

Very Positive

Mixed

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

27

24

21

11

10

5

2

Starship experiences sub 2 km RUD by 2026?

May 14, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.65%chance

145181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3475

288

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.13%chance

44475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13891

7199

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

When will Waymo offer a public driverless ride of their next generation vehicles (Zeekr, possibly no steering wheel)?

Apr 21, 8:01 PMJul 3, 6:59 AM

191468

OptionProbability

Before July 1, 2026

Before Dec 31, 2025

Not before July 1, 2026

Before July 1, 2024

Before Dec 31, 2024

Before July 1, 2025

71

47

17

0

0

0

Will Substack publications have at least 5 million paid subscribers by 2025?

Nov 20, 4:11 PMDec 31, 3:00 PM

30.89%chance

171178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

611

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76%chance

23912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

940

Will a major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, or Meta) acquire a neurotech startup in 2025?

Mar 8, 11:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.99%chance

15845

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

Are UAPs Relics from an Earlier Civilization on Earth?

Dec 1, 10:58 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

2.82%chance

9471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

534

100

xAI launches its own browser by EOY2025?

Jul 24, 6:07 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.23%chance

9296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

47

Was the Tunguska event caused by a Verneshot?

Nov 11, 9:26 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

28.61%chance

6125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

131

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