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Prediction markets for Rates

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

42.71%chance

4801149999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10362

8973

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Jan 9, 8:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.65%chance

78320760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5375

186

Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?

May 7, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

17534195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1440

971

Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.49%chance

3221616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29219

3422

When will Canada's birth rate exceed India's birth rate?

Dec 9, 10:30 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

610790

OptionProbability

2051-2075

2076-2100

2041-2050

2031-2040

After 2100

Never

2025-2030

27

21

15

14

14

5

4

Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?

Nov 7, 11:46 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

17.59%chance

518368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2166

462

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

108006

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

27

23

21

14

9

5

2

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Nov 17, 4:34 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

75116

OptionProbability

96.5%-97.49%

Below 94%

95.5%-96.49%

97.5% or above

94%-95.49%

26

23

22

16

14

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035?

Feb 15, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

183859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2603

1623

Unemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?

Feb 17, 10:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.3%chance

291497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2903

1424

Will the Democrats nominate a presidential candidate with a 50% or greater unfavorable rating on October 31, 2028?

May 1, 7:16 PMMay 9, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

How will I rate Vilenkin 1994? (+free lottery)

Sep 20, 11:53 PMSep 28, 3:53 AM

50%chance

49

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10001

9999

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