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Prediction markets for Ray AI

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10701123447

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2049-2050

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2028-2029

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2026-2027

2027-2028

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

10

8

7

7

6

6

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

0

0

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.85%chance

20759981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

926

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

Will bitcoin hit $1 million before it hits $100?

May 3, 11:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.17%chance

7116555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1607

806

Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?

Jun 21, 6:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.06%chance

3113484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

835

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.56%chance

607606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3253

2534

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

Apr 26, 3:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.71%chance

434708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

847

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Jul 2, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.05%chance

18461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

943

Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?

Jul 6, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.2%chance

8260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

110

When will the first anti-AGI terror attack occur?

Jun 11, 3:42 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9248

OptionProbability

Other

Never, AGI kills all humans first

2025

2026

2024

2027

2023

31

21

21

11

7

5

4

Will Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses sell at least 10 million units by December 31, 2026?

Dec 7, 1:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.47%chance

367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

What probability will a superintelligent AI assign to the proposition that Stalin was poisoned?

Apr 18, 1:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.02%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

75

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