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Prediction markets for Ray AI

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10771139062

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2028-2029

2027-2028

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2049-2050

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2026-2027

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

18

13

11

8

7

6

6

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26%chance

21564623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1851

458

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

Will bitcoin hit $1 million before it hits $100?

May 3, 11:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.88%chance

7317411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1332

874

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.89%chance

8313640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5343

2013

Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?

Jun 21, 6:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.55%chance

3113505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1493

828

How many games will the Pittsburgh Pirates win in the 2026 regular season?

Mar 26, 2:55 AMOct 4, 11:59 PM

76473

OptionProbability

82 - 87

76 - 81

Below 70

70 - 75

88 - 93

94 - 100

Above 100

76

19

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

Apr 26, 3:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.71%chance

434708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

847

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Jul 2, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.05%chance

19638

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

943

Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?

Jul 6, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.1%chance

11277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

113

Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?

May 16, 7:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

12.01%chance

8186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

What probability will a superintelligent AI assign to the proposition that Stalin was poisoned?

Apr 18, 1:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.02%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

75

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