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Prediction markets for Reach

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

8.13%chance

127235268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3153

961

Will Starship reach Mars by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.84%chance

279108614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4583

1054

Will $Kendu reach 100B MC in next bull run?

Sep 13, 10:15 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

1.26%chance

2483999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65171

533

Will TSLA reach $500 during Trump's term?

Nov 10, 5:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43%chance

9656250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

1095

Will the price of oil reach $150 before the end of 2026?

Oct 29, 6:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.5%chance

15753577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14959

2496

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.44%chance

12638679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12739

8335

During Trump's presidency, which types of unemployment will reach new highs?

Nov 9, 7:59 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

1322175

OptionProbability

U-1

U-2

U-3

U-4

U-5

15

11

11

11

11

Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?

Dec 30, 5:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.25%chance

3313877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

546

18

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

4110178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2066

486

[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?

Nov 7, 2:31 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM

52%chance

15800

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2817

1776

Will the U.S. or Israel be at war with Iran at any point during the year in which global peak oil is reached?

May 10, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes, Israel

Yes, Both U.S. and Israel

No, and the year is before 2030

Peak oil occurs 2030 or later

25

25

25

25

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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