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Prediction markets for Reactor

Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?

Jan 17, 10:00 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.45%chance

7510067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

944

Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?

Jan 24, 10:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

31%chance

787377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

988

Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:07 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

65.5%chance

314887

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

764

Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?

Mar 1, 11:45 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

71.4%chance

294727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

742

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?

Jan 26, 11:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

61.2%chance

874725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1359

976

Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?

Jan 26, 10:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.08%chance

492991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

880

Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?

Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

34.93%chance

392670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

1087

Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?

Jan 28, 8:16 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

41.52%chance

311993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

810

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.48%chance

231701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1734

365

Will Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?

Sep 27, 8:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.36%chance

241295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

583

Will a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) enter commercial operation in the US before 2030?

Oct 9, 10:28 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

12747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

771

Will the first commercial fusion reactor use inertial confinement fusion? (And not magnetic confinement fusion)

Dec 16, 11:42 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.42%chance

20396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

983

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