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Prediction markets for Read

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

20.8%chance

18021022330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19703

8751

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2025?🧠🕵️

Jun 20, 9:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

13917350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5017

1361

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030? 🧠🕵️

Jul 10, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.91%chance

10111439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1773

1294

Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before June 5, 2026? [read description]

May 31, 2:08 PMJun 5, 4:59 AM

8.65%chance

178964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3250

308

Will the US win the war against the Houthis in a year? (Read description)

Apr 10, 4:02 AMApr 10, 4:02 AM

32.41%chance

196269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

698

If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.98%chance

955648

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1951

1524

An attempt to fix the "Will this close above 50%" market. (READ DESCRIPTION)

Jul 19, 8:37 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

40%chance

74824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

When will the first AI Mind Reading technology be used in a legal or policing context?

Dec 1, 9:11 PMDec 12, 9:10 PM

40%chance

111324

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1035

789

Will we be able to read AIs minds in 2030?

Mar 24, 5:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.01%chance

31851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

875

Will reading in the schools be optional by 2045?

Nov 12, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.23%chance

16845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

917

Will reading in the schools be optional by 2060?

Dec 22, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.81%chance

17836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

895

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