Reader News

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

28550

2982

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17445547

OptionVotes

YES

1585

1297

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

40.95%chance

10518965

OptionVotes

YES

1066

931

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8616676

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Palantir

Other

xAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

DeepSeek

Facebook

Alibaba

Mistral

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Aug 24, 7:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.85%chance

444871

OptionProbability

YES

1188

662

Which method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?

Sep 11, 8:22 PMDec 31, 9:16 PM

362946

OptionProbability

Associate/informant provides suspect’s name

Suspect voluntarily surrenders

DNA match from evidence

Security/doorbell camera footage leading to identification

Social media post or online confession leads to identification

Ballistics trace links weapon to suspect

Fingerprint match from evidence

Public tip to police (hotline/Crimestoppers)

Facial recognition match

Cellphone location/records analysis identifies suspect

International cooperation

Automated license plate reader or traffic camera hit

Identified while seeking medical treatment

Undercover operation or sting identifies suspect

Identified during a routine traffic stop or unrelated arrest

Not found by police in 2025

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Oct 21, 2:56 AMJan 21, 2:54 AM

50.53%chance

111652

OptionVotes

YES

10107

9894

Which of these jobs are immune to AI replacement in 2030?

Jan 17, 3:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

291340

OptionProbability

Day care workers

strip dancer

Police

Plumbers

Public company CEO

Airline Pilot

hairdresser

Soldier

Burglary

Academic Reseacher

Software Engineer

Super-forcaster

Bus driver

supermarket cashier

Palm Reader

Customer Service Chat Agents

Uber Driver

taxi driver

Data Entry Clerks

Call center workers

Translator

Will more than 30 doctors be criminally charged for providing life/health of the mother abortion-related care by 2030?

Dec 18, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.1%chance

5606

OptionVotes

YES

1422

703

Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.32%chance

6138

OptionVotes

YES

138

Which of these social media changes will happen before EOY 2030

Nov 14, 4:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

343

OptionProbability

Other

Will a standard emerge for aggregating feeds from platforms like BlueSky, Twitter/X, and other social media platforms?

Will any major social media platform integrate zero-knowledge proofs to enhance user privacy and data control?

Will Twitter/X implement a Web3-style data control feature in Twitter/X? (must include data feed interoperability)

If Twitter/X introduces user-controlled data features, will BlueSky and Twitter/X data feeds become interoperable?

Will users be able to easily move their data between platforms?

Will user-built aggregators (akin to RSS readers) that pull in feeds from Web3-esque social media platforms becoming popular (over 50% of top 5 social media sites provide these features)?

[Ṁ$1000 bounty per] How many errors will be found in "We Didn't Write the Weights" (199 AI-history entries) before 2027?

Oct 13, 12:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

OptionProbability

Above 5

Reader News

Prediction markets for Reader

Prediction markets for Reader

Prediction markets for Reader

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Which method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Which of these jobs are immune to AI replacement in 2030?

Will more than 30 doctors be criminally charged for providing life/health of the mother abortion-related care by 2030?

Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?

Which of these social media changes will happen before EOY 2030

[Ṁ$1000 bounty per] How many errors will be found in "We Didn't Write the Weights" (199 AI-history entries) before 2027?

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