Reader News

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

16740007

OptionVotes

YES

1703

1135

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

27819

3071

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

19.62%chance

9718085

OptionVotes

YES

1907

586

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516354

OptionProbability

Palantir

Other

xAI

OpenAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Aug 24, 7:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.85%chance

444871

OptionProbability

YES

1188

662

Which method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?

Sep 11, 8:22 PMDec 31, 9:16 PM

352671

OptionProbability

Associate/informant provides suspect’s name

Security/doorbell camera footage leading to identification

DNA match from evidence

Suspect voluntarily surrenders

Social media post or online confession leads to identification

Ballistics trace links weapon to suspect

Fingerprint match from evidence

Public tip to police (hotline/Crimestoppers)

Facial recognition match

Cellphone location/records analysis identifies suspect

International cooperation

Automated license plate reader or traffic camera hit

Identified while seeking medical treatment

Identified during a routine traffic stop or unrelated arrest

Undercover operation or sting identifies suspect

Not found by police in 2025

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

16.12%chance

112352

OptionVotes

YES

2281

438

Which of these jobs are immune to AI replacement in 2030?

Jan 17, 3:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

251183

OptionProbability

Day care workers

strip dancer

Police

Public company CEO

Plumbers

Airline Pilot

Soldier

Burglary

hairdresser

Bus driver

Academic Reseacher

Software Engineer

Super-forcaster

supermarket cashier

Palm Reader

taxi driver

Translator

Uber Driver

Customer Service Chat Agents

Data Entry Clerks

Call center workers

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

998

932

Will more than 30 doctors be criminally charged for providing life/health of the mother abortion-related care by 2030?

Dec 18, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.1%chance

5606

OptionVotes

YES

1422

703

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

Which of these social media changes will happen before EOY 2030

Nov 14, 4:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

Other

Will user-built aggregators (akin to RSS readers) that pull in feeds from Web3-esque social media platforms becoming popular (over 50% of top 5 social media sites provide these features)?

Will Twitter/X implement a Web3-style data control feature in Twitter/X? (must include data feed interoperability)

If Twitter/X introduces user-controlled data features, will BlueSky and Twitter/X data feeds become interoperable?

Will a standard emerge for aggregating feeds from platforms like BlueSky, Twitter/X, and other social media platforms?

Will users be able to easily move their data between platforms?

Will any major social media platform integrate zero-knowledge proofs to enhance user privacy and data control?

Reader News

Prediction markets for Reader

Prediction markets for Reader

Prediction markets for Reader

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Which method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Which of these jobs are immune to AI replacement in 2030?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Will more than 30 doctors be criminally charged for providing life/health of the mother abortion-related care by 2030?

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Which of these social media changes will happen before EOY 2030

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