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Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

17243865

OptionVotes

YES

1585

1297

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

37.26%chance

10118664

OptionVotes

YES

1162

869

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516515

OptionProbability

Palantir

OpenAI

Other

xAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Aug 24, 7:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.85%chance

444871

OptionProbability

YES

1188

662

Which method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?

Sep 11, 8:22 PMDec 31, 9:16 PM

352776

OptionProbability

Associate/informant provides suspect’s name

Security/doorbell camera footage leading to identification

DNA match from evidence

Suspect voluntarily surrenders

Social media post or online confession leads to identification

Ballistics trace links weapon to suspect

Fingerprint match from evidence

Public tip to police (hotline/Crimestoppers)

Facial recognition match

Cellphone location/records analysis identifies suspect

International cooperation

Automated license plate reader or traffic camera hit

Identified while seeking medical treatment

Undercover operation or sting identifies suspect

Identified during a routine traffic stop or unrelated arrest

Not found by police in 2025

Which of these jobs are immune to AI replacement in 2030?

Jan 17, 3:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

251183

OptionProbability

Day care workers

strip dancer

Police

Public company CEO

Plumbers

Airline Pilot

Soldier

Burglary

hairdresser

Bus driver

Academic Reseacher

Software Engineer

Super-forcaster

supermarket cashier

Palm Reader

taxi driver

Translator

Uber Driver

Customer Service Chat Agents

Data Entry Clerks

Call center workers

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

998

932

Will more than 30 doctors be criminally charged for providing life/health of the mother abortion-related care by 2030?

Dec 18, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.1%chance

5606

OptionVotes

YES

1422

703

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

56.94%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

1150

870

Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.04%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

133

Which of these social media changes will happen before EOY 2030

Nov 14, 4:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

343

OptionProbability

Other

Will a standard emerge for aggregating feeds from platforms like BlueSky, Twitter/X, and other social media platforms?

Will any major social media platform integrate zero-knowledge proofs to enhance user privacy and data control?

Will Twitter/X implement a Web3-style data control feature in Twitter/X? (must include data feed interoperability)

If Twitter/X introduces user-controlled data features, will BlueSky and Twitter/X data feeds become interoperable?

Will users be able to easily move their data between platforms?

Will user-built aggregators (akin to RSS readers) that pull in feeds from Web3-esque social media platforms becoming popular (over 50% of top 5 social media sites provide these features)?

Reader News

Prediction markets for Reader

Prediction markets for Reader

Prediction markets for Reader

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Which method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?

Which of these jobs are immune to AI replacement in 2030?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Will more than 30 doctors be criminally charged for providing life/health of the mother abortion-related care by 2030?

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?

Which of these social media changes will happen before EOY 2030

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