DeepNewz, mobile.
People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
Crewed mission to Phobos
USA adds 52nd state
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
President with Green Eyes elected
UK has a queen again
Olympics hosted in Japan again
ChatGPT 10 releases
RSA-2048 cracked
African company or country lands on moon
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
Batman enters the public domain
Room temperature superconductor discovered
The Beatles music enters the public domain
Japan Bans Whaling
Human walks on mars
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
human dies on the moon
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
Olympics hosted in Africa
Pickleball in the Olympics
Norway Bans Whaling
First hispanic USA president
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Team Fortress 3 releases
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
End support date for Windows 12
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
USA Adds 51st state
The first $10T market cap company
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
Iceland Bans Whaling
The version after Windows 12 releases
EU reaches 30 member states
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
Superman enters the public domain
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
Peppa Pig ends
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
Destiny retires from regular streaming
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
Windows 11 end support date
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
1500 Pokemon Released
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Civilization 8 releases
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
First female USA president
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
South Park ends
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
ChatGPT 7 releases
Simpsons ends
Xi no longer in power in China
Human walks on moon again
Blood Meridian movie release
Trump Dies
Chicago ends on Broadway
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Half Life 3 releases
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
1300 Pokemon Released
Another MLB perfect game pitched
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
One piece manga ends
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Skibidi Toilet ends
Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
a USA president impeached again
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
First Trillionaire (USD)
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
ChatGPT 6 releases
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Shrek 5 releases
Sagrada Familia Church completed
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
The first $5T market cap company
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
82
77
74
73
73
72
71
69
68
67
66
66
66
65
64
63
63
61
61
59
58
57
57
57
56
55
54
54
53
52
49
49
47
47
45
44
44
42
41
40
40
38
38
38
37
37
37
35
35
35
35
34
33
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
31
30
29
29
28
27
26
25
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
18
18
17
17
17
13
12
10
9
8
7
6
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Left 4 Dead 3
Portal 3
Team Fortress 3
Far Cry 8
Counter Strike 3
Star Craft 3
Grand Theft Auto 7
Under Night In-Birth 3
Crysis 4
Monaco 3
Star Citizen
Tony Hawk Pro Skater 6
Mega Man 12
Saints Row (6th main game)
Red Dead Redemption 3
Banjo Kazooie 3
Tekken 9
Age of Empires 5
Fallout 5
Bloody Roar 5
Fable 4
Physint (Kojima stealth game)
Armored Core 7
Soul Calibur 7
Bayonetta 4
Romance of the Three Kingdoms 15
Samurai Shodown (after 2019 release)
Final Fantasy 18
Earth Defense Force 7
Radio the Universe
Watch Dogs 4 (after Legion)
Crackdown 4
Dead Island 3
Dead Space 4
Dead or Alive 7
Pikmin 5
Mass Effect 5
Wolf Among Us 2
BlazBlue (after Cross Tag Battle)
Dynasty Origins 12
Devil May Cry 6
Riot's MMORPG
ARK Survival Evolved 2
Mario Kart 10
Bioshock 4 (after Infinite)
Marathon
Diablo 5
Dynasty Warriors 11 (after origins)
rivals of aether 3
Kingdom Hearts 4
Far Cry 7
Civilization 8
Hearts of Iron 5
Final Fantasy 17
Street Fighter 7
Dragon Quest 12
Darksiders 4
Super Smash Bros (after Ultimate)
Mortal Kombat after 'MK1' (MK12)
A Plague Tale 3
Need for Speed (26th main game)
Tropico 7
Half Life 3
Dynasty Warriors Origins
Gran Turismo 8
Guilty Gear (after Strive)
The Sims 5
Monaco 2
Control 2
King of Fighters 16
Hytale
Splatoon 4
Command and Conquer 5
ARMA 4
Haunted Chocolatier
Persona 6
Witcher 4 Polaris
Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves
Elder Scrolls 6
Virtua Fighter 6
Next Gears of War (E Day)
Grand Theft Auto 6
deadlock / neon Prime (valve game)
S&box (Sandbox)
Resident Evil 9
Europa Universalis 5
Outer Worlds 2
Vampire the Masquerade Bloodlines 2
Little Nightmares 3
2XKO
Silent Hill f (the next main game)
Skate 4
Silksong (Hollow Knight)
Killing Floor 3
Death Stranding 2
Mario Kart 9
Monster Hunter Wilds
Civilization 7
Slitterhead
Rivals of Aether 2
Mario Party 12 (after Super Mario Party)
Frostpunk 2
Prince of Persia after Lost Crown
Hades 2
94
92
90
88
87
86
85
85
82
82
80
78
77
76
75
75
74
74
73
68
67
66
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
55
55
55
55
55
55
54
54
53
53
53
52
51
50
50
44
44
44
44
43
42
42
41
40
40
40
40
40
39
39
38
37
37
36
36
35
35
34
32
32
30
30
29
28
27
25
25
22
22
21
21
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth
Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders
ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)
Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ
ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive
Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya
Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council
Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons
Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council
Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council
Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election
Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council
Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets
Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire
Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest
Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)
Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles
Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb
Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p
Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined
Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market
Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%
Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users
Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended
Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_
Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council
Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators
Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund
Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it
Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).
add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council
Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil
Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come
Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined
ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)
ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council
DUPLICATE - NA
ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.
ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)
ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered
ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)
ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals
Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event
Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)
Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council
Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze
Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)
Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible
Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.
Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it
Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana
Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council
Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024
Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot
Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb
Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse
Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)
Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate
Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly
Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council
Proposal: add @firstuserhere to the security council
97
95
95
95
94
91
89
87
84
81
79
79
77
73
71
71
70
69
69
69
69
67
66
65
65
61
60
56
55
55
55
54
53
53
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
48
48
48
47
47
44
42
42
41
34
32
32
26
25
23
18
15
11
OptionProbability
human steps on moon again
trump dies
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
grok 6 release date
Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more
Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card
Netanyahu out as PM of israel
windows 12 announcement is made
Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase
trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
putin or zelensky lose power
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
Saw XI Releases in USA
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
polymarket or kalshi ipo
haunted chocolatier release date known
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
alan greenspan passes away
yoko ono passes away
stripe ipo happens
apple announces a touchscreen laptop
noam chomsky passes away
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more
commercial airline hijacked
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
spacex IPO happens
playstation 6 announced
Kier Starmer out
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27
new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)
manifold raises more money
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
twitter/x releases x mail to some users
iphone fold release date known
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
Cy Young award winner announced
marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA
ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
another trump assassination attempt
nobel peace prize winner announced
discord IPO happens
Patriot Games ending day
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
tropico 7 releases
fable (2026) releases
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
apple announces a smart ring
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
First game of the MLB World Series starts
Third dune movie officially announced
fourth Knives Out movie announced
beyonce releases an album
drake releases an album
playboi carti releases an album
Patriot Games starting day
English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more
Hades 3 announced (game)
the first Solar eclipse of the year
coup in an african country
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
fifa world cup - last game ends
Taylor swift gets married
Manifest 2026 starts
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
grok 5 release date
llama 5 release date
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
Last day of the NFL draft
artemis II mission launches
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
new iphone releases (in the USA)
trump removes a cabinet member
First Apple Event of the year
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
manifold launches real money trading
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)
First Nintendo direct of the year
doomsday clock announcement made
98
93
90
87
87
85
83
83
83
82
80
78
76
76
76
73
72
71
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
65
65
63
62
61
61
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
57
56
56
56
55
55
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
46
46
46
43
38
36
36
34
34
34
31
31
30
28
25
24
24
22
18
15
14
14
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
188
102