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OptionProbability
President with Green Eyes elected
Crewed mission to Phobos
Room temperature superconductor discovered
USA adds 52nd state
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
UK has a queen again
Olympics hosted in Japan again
ChatGPT 10 releases
RSA-2048 cracked
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
Batman enters the public domain
The Beatles music enters the public domain
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
Norway Bans Whaling
African company or country lands on moon
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
Olympics hosted in Africa
Japan Bans Whaling
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
First hispanic USA president
End support date for Windows 12
Pickleball in the Olympics
Team Fortress 3 releases
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
human dies on the moon
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
The first $10T market cap company
USA Adds 51st state
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
Superman enters the public domain
Iceland Bans Whaling
Human walks on mars
The version after Windows 12 releases
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
Destiny retires from regular streaming
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
Peppa Pig ends
EU reaches 30 member states
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
1500 Pokemon Released
Windows 11 end support date
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
Blood Meridian movie release
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Civilization 8 releases
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
First female USA president
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
South Park ends
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
ChatGPT 7 releases
Simpsons ends
Xi no longer in power in China
Trump Dies
First Trillionaire (USD)
Human walks on moon again
Chicago ends on Broadway
1300 Pokemon Released
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
Another MLB perfect game pitched
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Half Life 3 releases
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
One piece manga ends
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Skibidi Toilet ends
Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
a USA president impeached again
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Shrek 5 releases
Sagrada Familia Church completed
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
ChatGPT 6 releases
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
The first $5T market cap company
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
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OptionProbability
Left 4 Dead 3
Portal 3
Team Fortress 3
Far Cry 8
Counter Strike 3
Star Craft 3
Grand Theft Auto 7
Under Night In-Birth 3
Crysis 4
Monaco 3
Star Citizen
Tony Hawk Pro Skater 6
Mega Man 12
Saints Row (6th main game)
Red Dead Redemption 3
Banjo Kazooie 3
Tekken 9
Age of Empires 5
Fallout 5
Bloody Roar 5
Fable 4
Physint (Kojima stealth game)
Armored Core 7
Soul Calibur 7
Bayonetta 4
Romance of the Three Kingdoms 15
Samurai Shodown (after 2019 release)
Final Fantasy 18
Earth Defense Force 7
Radio the Universe
Watch Dogs 4 (after Legion)
Crackdown 4
Dead Island 3
Dead Space 4
Dead or Alive 7
Pikmin 5
Mass Effect 5
Wolf Among Us 2
BlazBlue (after Cross Tag Battle)
Dynasty Origins 12
Devil May Cry 6
Riot's MMORPG
ARK Survival Evolved 2
Mario Kart 10
Bioshock 4 (after Infinite)
Marathon
Diablo 5
Dynasty Warriors 11 (after origins)
rivals of aether 3
Kingdom Hearts 4
Far Cry 7
Civilization 8
Hearts of Iron 5
Final Fantasy 17
Street Fighter 7
Dragon Quest 12
Darksiders 4
Super Smash Bros (after Ultimate)
Mortal Kombat after 'MK1' (MK12)
A Plague Tale 3
Need for Speed (26th main game)
Hytale
Tropico 7
Half Life 3
Dynasty Warriors Origins
Gran Turismo 8
Guilty Gear (after Strive)
The Sims 5
Monaco 2
Control 2
King of Fighters 16
Splatoon 4
Command and Conquer 5
ARMA 4
Haunted Chocolatier
Persona 6
Witcher 4 Polaris
Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves
Elder Scrolls 6
Virtua Fighter 6
Next Gears of War (E Day)
Grand Theft Auto 6
deadlock / neon Prime (valve game)
Resident Evil 9
S&box (Sandbox)
Europa Universalis 5
Outer Worlds 2
Vampire the Masquerade Bloodlines 2
Little Nightmares 3
2XKO
Silent Hill f (the next main game)
Skate 4
Silksong (Hollow Knight)
Killing Floor 3
Death Stranding 2
Mario Kart 9
Monster Hunter Wilds
Civilization 7
Slitterhead
Rivals of Aether 2
Mario Party 12 (after Super Mario Party)
Frostpunk 2
Prince of Persia after Lost Crown
Hades 2
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OptionProbability
Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth
Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders
ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)
Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ
ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive
Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya
Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council
Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons
Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council
Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council
Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election
Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council
Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets
Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire
Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest
Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)
Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles
Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb
Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p
Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined
Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market
Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%
Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users
Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended
Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_
Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council
Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators
Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund
Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it
Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).
add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council
Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil
Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come
Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined
ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)
ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council
DUPLICATE - NA
ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.
ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)
ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered
ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)
ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals
Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event
Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)
Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council
Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze
Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)
Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible
Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.
Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it
Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana
Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council
Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024
Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot
Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb
Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse
Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)
Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate
Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly
Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council
Proposal: add @firstuserhere to the security council
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OptionProbability
human steps on moon again
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
trump dies
grok 6 release date
Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more
Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card
Netanyahu out as PM of israel
Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase
playstation 6 announced
manifold launches real money trading
trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory
putin or zelensky lose power
windows 12 announcement is made
Saw XI Releases in USA
polymarket or kalshi ipo
haunted chocolatier release date known
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
alan greenspan passes away
stripe ipo happens
apple announces a touchscreen laptop
noam chomsky passes away
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
commercial airline hijacked
discord IPO happens
Kier Starmer out
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
spacex IPO happens
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27
new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
Cy Young award winner announced
Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more
ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
another trump assassination attempt
nobel peace prize winner announced
Patriot Games ending day
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
manifold raises more money
tropico 7 releases
fable (2026) releases
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
twitter/x releases x mail to some users
iphone fold release date known
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
yoko ono passes away
apple announces a smart ring
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
First game of the MLB World Series starts
new iphone releases (in the USA)
Third dune movie officially announced
fourth Knives Out movie announced
beyonce releases an album
drake releases an album
playboi carti releases an album
Patriot Games starting day
Hades 3 announced (game)
the first Solar eclipse of the year
coup in an african country
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)
Manifest 2026 starts
fifa world cup - last game ends
marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
Taylor swift gets married
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
trump removes a cabinet member
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
grok 5 release date
llama 5 release date
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
Last day of the NFL draft
someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard
First Apple Event of the year
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
artemis II mission launches
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)
First Nintendo direct of the year
doomsday clock announcement made
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OptionVotes
NO
YES
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