Real Earnings News

How many Manifold users will link their account to a futarchy that pays real money?

Aug 13, 7:48 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

37.42%chance

3810099

OptionProbability

YES

7781

6334

AI Bubble (props)

Mar 8, 8:00 AMMar 8, 8:00 AM

193267

OptionProbability

Major AI lab (OpenAI/Anthropic/xAI) announces 20%+ layoffs by end 2026

Nvidia stock lower on Dec 31, 2026 than Mar 8, 2026 close

Global AI capex growth under 40% YoY in 2026

Anthropic valuation below $300B by Dec 31, 2026

Do you think Bayern would win the second leg against Real Madrid

Apr 7, 11:20 PMDec 30, 11:19 PM

99%chance

92593

OptionVotes

YES

995

Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 22, 12:04 AMOct 14, 12:29 PM

87.72%chance

6431

OptionVotes

YES

266

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2040

Mar 14, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.78%chance

4148

OptionVotes

YES

154

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2030

Mar 14, 4:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.74%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

211

Is Floyd Mayweather Broke? 🥊💰🤑💵💸

Mar 8, 2:45 PMDec 31, 2:41 PM

77%chance

3126

OptionVotes

YES

183

Germany after the AfD enters federal government: objective measures

Sep 20, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4124

OptionProbability

Will real GDP increase? [Higher inflation-adjusted total GDP, Destatis]

Will real GDP per capita increase? [Higher inflation-adjusted GDP per resident, Destatis]

Will freedom of expression increase? [Higher V-Dem Freedom of Expression and Alternative Sources of Information Index]

Will greenhouse-gas emissions decrease? [Lower annual territorial emissions, excluding land use and forestry, Umweltbundesamt]

Will real wages increase? [Higher annual real earnings index, Destatis]

Will Germany go back to 1933 era?

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2035

Mar 14, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.77%chance

346

OptionVotes

YES

136

Will November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 26, 1:28 AMDec 10, 1:29 PM

49.46%chance

317

OptionVotes

YES

103

Will December 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 18, 6:10 PMDec 10, 12:25 PM

49.72%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will October 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 23, 12:11 AMNov 10, 1:29 PM

53.47%chance

OptionVotes

YES

101

Real Earnings News

Prediction markets for Real Earnings

Prediction markets for Real Earnings

Prediction markets for Real Earnings

How many Manifold users will link their account to a futarchy that pays real money?

AI Bubble (props)

Do you think Bayern would win the second leg against Real Madrid

Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2040

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2030

Is Floyd Mayweather Broke? 🥊💰🤑💵💸

Germany after the AfD enters federal government: objective measures

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2035

Will November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Will December 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Will October 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Latest stories