OptionProbability
Before Q1 2030
Before Q3 2029
Before Q1 2029
Before Q3 2028
Before Q1 2028
Before Q3 2027
Before Q1 2027
Q1 2030 or later
Before Q3 2026
Before Q1 2026
74
66
59
56
53
41
27
5
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2130
470
238
42
2027
2028
2026
2025
2029
2030 or later
Other
43
20
3
2
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
55
47
46
45
