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Prediction markets for Reality

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.09%chance

243124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3239

689

Will AI video become indistinguishable from reality by 2030?

Jun 30, 2:13 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

81.8%chance

292172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2120

472

Will virtual reality replace traditional schooling methods by 2030?

Jan 11, 12:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.9%chance

161791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2362

778

Will "The Lethal Reality Hypothesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 20, 4:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

61425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

Will someone fail to hydrate/eat, dying as a result, because they could not perceive reality, their hunger, or their thirst, while using a social media network in the next 10 years?

Dec 6, 3:48 AMDec 6, 4:00 AM

39.3%chance

171036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

848

Will >50% of the US population own a Vision Pro or other mixed reality headset in 2028?

Jun 5, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.13%chance

121002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

957

Will Elon Musk launch a reality show on Mars, featuring Martian life by 2030?

Feb 5, 11:42 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

4.33%chance

19830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

936

Will fully realistic virtual reality be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75%chance

13561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

979

Will Lego sell Virtual Reality construction sets by the end of 2030?

Apr 19, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.32%chance

18269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

992

Will there be a Zelda: Breath of the Wild adaptation for Virtual Reality by end of 2030?

Jan 7, 7:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.85%chance

13109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

970

Will there be an Elden Ring adaptation for Virtual Reality by end of 2030?

Jan 2, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24%chance

883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

151

In 10 years, will any of @OfficialLoganK / Logan GPT's predictions about the year 2034 be a reality?

Mar 10, 11:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

270

OptionProbability

full self driving cars that can work anywhere in the world

Supersonic commercial jets in use

internet everywhere on earth

cures for major diseases (at least 2, 'major' as determined by manifold poll)

super human ai (as defined by the manifold poll)

humans on mars

52

50

50

50

20

20

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