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Prediction markets for Reality

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.09%chance

243124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3239

689

Will AI video become indistinguishable from reality by 2030?

Jun 30, 2:13 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

81.8%chance

292172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2120

472

Will virtual reality replace traditional schooling methods by 2030?

Jan 11, 12:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.9%chance

161791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2362

778

Will "The Lethal Reality Hypothesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 20, 4:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.93%chance

61426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1398

947

Will someone fail to hydrate/eat, dying as a result, because they could not perceive reality, their hunger, or their thirst, while using a social media network in the next 10 years?

Dec 6, 3:48 AMDec 6, 4:00 AM

30.92%chance

181280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

717

Will >50% of the US population own a Vision Pro or other mixed reality headset in 2028?

Jun 5, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.13%chance

121002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

957

Will Elon Musk launch a reality show on Mars, featuring Martian life by 2030?

Feb 5, 11:42 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

4.33%chance

19830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

936

Will fully realistic virtual reality be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75%chance

13561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

979

Will Lego sell Virtual Reality construction sets by the end of 2030?

Apr 19, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.32%chance

18269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

992

Will virtual and augmented reality be as popular in 2060 as smartphones were in 2021?

Mar 26, 12:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

65.9%chance

10152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

253

146

Will there be a Zelda: Breath of the Wild adaptation for Virtual Reality by end of 2030?

Jan 7, 7:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.85%chance

13109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

970

Will Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics become a reality before 2100?

Sep 9, 12:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.01%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

86

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