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Prediction markets for Reasoning Mode

Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?

Feb 10, 8:33 AMSep 30, 11:59 AM

1.02%chance

3513172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9852

102

What is the main reason behind GPT-4o speed improvement relative to GPT-4 base model?

May 14, 12:17 PMJul 21, 9:59 PM

252164

OptionProbability

Smaller model size (hence, architecture/algorithm improvements)

More/better hardware allocated

Something related to low-level computation efficiency (for example, optimized frameworks)

Other

Better coarser-grained tokenizer

82

74

43

23

20

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

Dec 13, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.51%chance

81152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1856

539

By what date will encoded reasoning via alien reasoning be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?

Oct 10, 11:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2369

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

34

29

28

27

26

25

24

17

0

By what date will encoded reasoning via steganography be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?

Oct 10, 11:14 AMJan 1, 12:13 PM

2362

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

52

50

48

43

40

38

35

32

0

Will "It Is Reasonable To Research How To Use Model..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 2:45 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.3%chance

2350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

952

SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?

Jul 11, 1:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.31%chance

6317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

407

25

By what date will at least one state-of-the-art general-purpose AI system not be a reasoning model?

Oct 10, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:23 AM

3249

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

72

69

66

59

55

51

44

38

0

By what date will encoded reasoning via linguistic drift be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?

Oct 10, 11:10 AMJan 1, 12:04 PM

2215

OptionProbability

01.01.2030

01.07.2029

01.01.2029

01.07.2028

01.01.2028

01.07.2027

01.01.2027

01.07.2026

01.01.2026

79

76

73

63

58

53

48

43

0

A top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?

May 19, 12:23 PMJan 31, 12:20 PM

19.6%chance

7122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

49

Will "Shutdown Resistance in Reasoning Models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 7, 12:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

19%chance

372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

730

Will "Do reasoning models use their scratchpad like..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 11:13 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

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