RECA News
Prediction markets for RECA
If Nigel Farage wins the Clacton by-election, will he be recalled anyway?
Jul 7, 2:17 PMJul 7, 2:05 PM
58.62%chance
171587
OptionVotes
1190
840
Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war?
Jun 4, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.73%chance
4680
OptionVotes
1112
900
Will there be a recall of Wegovy/Ozempic before 2035?
Jan 21, 10:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
75.37%chance
10477
OptionVotes
300
62
Will Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson be recalled (2023-2027 term)?
Apr 12, 2:45 PMMay 22, 10:59 PM
10.23%chance
9429
OptionVotes
296
34
Will "Season Recap of the Village: Agents raise $2,000" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 29, 7:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.16%chance
1250
OptionVotes
1250
964
OptionVotes
148
68
Which of the following AI pundits will publicly recant the belief they're known for holding before 2028?
Nov 18, 11:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
6191
OptionProbability
55
50
30
29
Will "Recap of bike trip/street interviews across A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 17, 6:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.05%chance
4164
OptionVotes
1160
976
By 2040, will we believe that the head of the Great Sphinx was substantially recarved after its initial construction?
Aug 9, 7:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
60%chance
392
OptionVotes
98
83
Running probability that we are in the overshoot and collapse scenario of world3 and its 2023 recalibration.
Dec 3, 9:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
41.41%chance
345
OptionVotes
119
84