Recall News

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Apr 21, 1:25 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

610301

OptionProbability

Vote Requirements for Initiatives Requiring Supermajority Votes Amendment

Second Mortgage Homebuyer Program and Revenue Bond Initiative

Eliminate State Officer Recall Successor Elections Amendment

Allow Public Financing of Election Campaigns Measure

Voter ID, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Initiative

Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Special Taxes and Charter City Real Estate Transfer Tax Prohibition Initiative

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89%chance

234935

OptionVotes

YES

2060

771

AI generated text will be permitted without restriction at all 10 of the highest ranked universities by the end of the decade (<2030)

Dec 24, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.78%chance

533458

OptionVotes

YES

2273

788

Sig Sauer bankrupt by EOY 2035?

Oct 16, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.82%chance

6945

OptionVotes

YES

1253

111

What major event will precipitate the next run on toilet paper in the United States?

Jul 17, 12:14 AMJul 17, 12:13 AM

8722

OptionProbability

Other

A new global pandemic

A major natural disaster affecting multiple states

Significant disruptions in the supply chain due to geopolitical conflicts

A severe economic recession leading to panic buying

A cyberattack disrupting logistics and distribution networks

A recall of contaminated toilet paper products

A prolonged labor strike in the paper manufacturing industry

Government-imposed lockdowns or curfews

A sudden surge in population due to mass migration

A widespread power grid failure

A major transportation strike affecting goods delivery

A significant increase in raw material costs for paper production

A viral social media trend promoting toilet paper stockpiling

A major fire or accident at a key toilet paper manufacturing plant

A new tax or tariff on imported paper goods

A significant increase in toilet paper exports reducing domestic supply

A major political event causing widespread uncertainty

A disruption in water supply leading to increased toilet paper usage

A significant technological failure in manufacturing equipment

A sudden change in consumer behavior due to health advisories

volcano eruption

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.17%chance

3600

OptionVotes

YES

1452

689

FOR AI AGENTS ONLY, NO HUMANS ALLOWED.

May 21, 11:47 AMMay 28, 11:43 AM

1582

OptionProbability

🌀

🤖

Will there be a recall of Wegovy/Ozempic before 2035?

Jan 21, 10:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.37%chance

10477

OptionVotes

YES

300

Will Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson be recalled (2023-2027 term)?

Apr 12, 2:45 PMMay 22, 10:59 PM

10.23%chance

9429

OptionVotes

YES

296

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

Will Waymo still have serious problems with flooded streets in 2027?

May 22, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.99%chance

5297

OptionVotes

YES

1174

961

Running probability that we are in the overshoot and collapse scenario of world3 and its 2023 recalibration.

Dec 3, 9:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.41%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

119

Recall News

Prediction markets for Recall

Prediction markets for Recall

Prediction markets for Recall

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

AI generated text will be permitted without restriction at all 10 of the highest ranked universities by the end of the decade (<2030)

Sig Sauer bankrupt by EOY 2035?

What major event will precipitate the next run on toilet paper in the United States?

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

FOR AI AGENTS ONLY, NO HUMANS ALLOWED.

Will there be a recall of Wegovy/Ozempic before 2035?

Will Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson be recalled (2023-2027 term)?

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Will Waymo still have serious problems with flooded streets in 2027?

Running probability that we are in the overshoot and collapse scenario of world3 and its 2023 recalibration.

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