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Prediction markets for Receiver

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.85%chance

11757169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8736

3785

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

732223

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

84

60

15

1

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.38%chance

3411193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8143

1543

Will MIRI receive more than 1 billion USD in funding in a single year before 2030?

Jun 15, 7:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5.38%chance

256938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4196

238

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize within the next 10 years?

May 24, 1:01 AMMay 31, 6:59 AM

19.08%chance

365090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2059

486

Will Charlie Kirk's killer receive the death penalty?

Sep 11, 12:04 AMSep 11, 12:04 AM

32.83%chance

424347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

699

Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?

Oct 4, 5:36 AMJun 29, 10:59 PM

40.2%chance

142701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1220

820

Will the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?

Mar 3, 9:59 PMMar 31, 9:59 PM

37.34%chance

101090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

787

By EOY 2100, will humanity have sent a probe to another star system and received meaningful info?

Jul 12, 12:16 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

48.08%chance

19992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

575

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.62%chance

21788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

968

Will the public know before christmas 2032 that either Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping has received an organ transplant?

Sep 3, 8:45 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

41.49%chance

8608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

842

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