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Prediction markets for Receiver

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Dec 1, 2025?

Aug 11, 9:50 AMDec 15, 11:59 PM

2.05%chance

1341528264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

691690

14457

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.77%chance

11657018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8894

3701

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

728398

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

84

60

32

1

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.41%chance

3311183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8133

1545

Will an AI-fabricated police brutality video receive major news coverage by end of 2025?

Jun 19, 9:59 PMJan 5, 7:59 AM

34.86%chance

559499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

609

Will Sam Altman receive a significant equity stake in OpenAI? (>= 3% of the company) before end of 2025?

Sep 27, 5:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.24%chance

677442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2933

201

Will MIRI receive more than 1 billion USD in funding in a single year before 2030?

Jun 15, 7:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7.98%chance

236138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3396

295

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize within the next 10 years?

May 24, 1:01 AMMay 31, 6:59 AM

19.08%chance

365090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2059

486

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.31%chance

163092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3237

737

Will the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?

Mar 3, 9:59 PMMar 31, 9:59 PM

37.34%chance

101090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

787

By EOY 2100, will humanity have sent a probe to another star system and received meaningful info?

Jul 12, 12:16 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

48.08%chance

19992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

575

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