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Prediction markets for Receiver

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

96.55%chance

58498723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

554784

19784

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Jun 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.48%chance

15129550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

52378

1909

By when will most 50k+ FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14114309

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2025

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2026

84

58

0

0

0

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.97%chance

11857524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9296

3502

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.38%chance

3411193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8143

1543

Will MIRI receive more than 1 billion USD in funding in a single year before 2030?

Jun 15, 7:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5.52%chance

256995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4139

242

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize within the next 10 years?

May 24, 1:01 AMMay 31, 6:59 AM

19.08%chance

365090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2059

486

Will the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?

Mar 3, 9:59 PMMar 31, 9:59 PM

31.14%chance

111496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

686

By EOY 2100, will humanity have sent a probe to another star system and received meaningful info?

Jul 12, 12:16 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

48.08%chance

19992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

575

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.62%chance

21788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

968

Will rapper d4vd receive the death penalty?

Apr 21, 6:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.84%chance

5372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

940

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