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Prediction markets for Receiver

Will federal employees accepting deferred resignation receive full promised compensation?

Jan 29, 6:15 AMOct 1, 12:00 AM

85.33%chance

19798825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10793

1878

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.25%chance

11456464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9350

3477

Will "SPINNING PLATES OF MEANING ON A NEEDLE MADE OF LIGHT!" receive 10,000 listens in 2025?

Mar 27, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

5517270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Renters' Rights Bill receives Royal Assent by August 31, 2025

Jun 19, 6:10 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

1.66%chance

514006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12854

287

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.41%chance

3311183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8133

1545

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

611111

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

86

65

53

17

Will an AI-fabricated police brutality video receive major news coverage by end of 2025?

Jun 19, 9:59 PMJan 5, 7:59 AM

36.53%chance

549449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

637

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will MIRI receive more than 1 billion USD in funding in a single year before 2030?

Jun 15, 7:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.66%chance

215638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2896

345

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize within the next 10 years?

May 24, 1:01 AMMay 31, 6:59 AM

19.08%chance

365090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2059

486

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.6%chance

141992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

936

Will the United States Supreme Court receive a challenge to gender identity as a protected class before 2026?

Apr 30, 12:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.6%chance

141516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1710

250

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