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Prediction markets for Recorded Future

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8215250

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

January 6th

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Bitcoin

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

97

94

88

86

82

82

77

75

63

61

61

57

54

51

40

21

13

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

3310615

OptionProbability

2029

Other

2026

2027

2028

2025

2030

2024

41

19

11

11

10

4

3

0

By what year will surgical abortion be illegal across the US except in cases of risk to the life of the mother?

Jul 5, 4:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83461

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2024

9

9

7

2

0

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.94%chance

272955

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2248

1874

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

241653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

Tyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028

Dec 18, 4:41 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

97.57%chance

20950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

909

49

Will there be a vote confirmed for a united Ireland before the end of 2025?

Oct 4, 1:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

12779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

689

86

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.52%chance

9548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1347

742

Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?

Jul 15, 11:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.58%chance

8269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

Who in the GC will get married next

Apr 27, 2:29 AMApr 27, 2:15 AM

6115

OptionProbability

Jean

Emily

Max

Werly

Justin

Logan

Mike

Built

Demily

Ronin

Colin

Botto

Kareem

Other

27

19

14

7

6

5

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will Steve Fulop run for public office in 2026-2030?

Jun 14, 11:24 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

55.2%chance

111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

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