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Prediction markets for Recorded Future

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519448

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

January 6th

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

86

82

82

78

75

63

63

62

57

54

53

51

40

21

13

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

5419332

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2029

2028

Other

2030

2025

2024

41

17

14

13

11

2

1

0

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.94%chance

303718

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3011

1761

Will a high-profile news story about my egg freezing journey lead to problems working with clinics in the future

Sep 11, 9:27 PMDec 31, 10:19 PM

33%chance

283390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

Will there be a vote confirmed for a united Ireland before the end of 2025?

Oct 4, 1:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

131789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1690

69

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

10%chance

251703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1005

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.07%chance

91052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

906

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.43%chance

12735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

824

Who in the GC will get married next

Apr 27, 2:29 AMApr 27, 2:15 AM

6115

OptionProbability

Jean

Emily

Max

Werly

Justin

Logan

Mike

Built

Demily

Ronin

Colin

Botto

Kareem

Other

27

19

14

7

6

5

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Will Gold price reach 4600/oz before December 31, 2025?

Dec 17, 7:08 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.77%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

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