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Prediction markets for Recorder

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Jan 14, 7:29 PMFeb 28, 9:00 AM

75.64%chance

11325280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1364

43

Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade

Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.62%chance

13623838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

769

At the beginning of 2032, will Jeanne Calment's record for longest documented lifespan (122 years and 164 days) still hold?

Dec 13, 9:00 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.59%chance

436175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1960

616

Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?

May 13, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

282747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

990

Will the record for largest cabbage be broken before 2027?

Aug 30, 4:28 PMJan 7, 6:59 AM

9.35%chance

182431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2818

171

Will anyone beat Jeanne Calment's record of 122 years, 164 days by the beginning of 2040?

Aug 29, 8:46 PMSep 6, 6:59 AM

47.48%chance

331639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

973

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.46%chance

201595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2364

251

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

63.51%chance

91341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

758

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

77.15%chance

361235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

957

Will 2030 be the warmest year on record?

Jan 12, 4:40 PMJan 22, 10:59 PM

33%chance

231164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1161

999

Will a YuGiOh card sell for a record breaking price by Jan 1st 2027? (Current: $311,211 for Tyler the Great Warrior)

Nov 28, 10:06 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

37.73%chance

18690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

516

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.49%chance

10163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

1095

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