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Prediction markets for Recorder

Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade

Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.62%chance

13623838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

769

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Jan 14, 7:29 PMFeb 28, 9:00 AM

22%chance

618924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

385

At the beginning of 2032, will Jeanne Calment's record for longest documented lifespan (122 years and 164 days) still hold?

Dec 13, 9:00 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.59%chance

436175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1960

616

If Kamala Harris is elected President, will the term "bitch" in google trends exceed its recorded high from July 2015?

Nov 3, 3:24 AMJan 20, 5:59 AM

38.28%chance

232367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

787

Will the record for largest cabbage be broken before 2027?

Aug 30, 4:28 PMJan 7, 6:59 AM

9.74%chance

181978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2771

176

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

59.79%chance

91241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

820

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

77.15%chance

361235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

957

Will 2030 be the warmest year on record?

Jan 12, 4:40 PMJan 22, 10:59 PM

32.83%chance

221162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

996

Will either of the men’s 1500m or Mile world records be broken by the end of the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Feb 6, 2:31 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.84%chance

9151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

1102

Will the domino-toppling world record be broken before 2030?

May 1, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

49.71%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

999

Will the SMB1 Any% (NTSC) world record go to 4:54.265 or lower by January 1, 2040?

Jun 25, 12:04 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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