Red News

Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

Sep 4, 7:49 AMMay 1, 5:59 AM

3636485

OptionProbability

Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates

Other

No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)

Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights

Yes, the Red-Haired Pirates ARE the holy knights

Will Greenland be renamed "Red, White, and Blueland"

Feb 11, 9:49 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.61%chance

2510773

OptionVotes

YES

6103

164

Will the official ClaudePlaysPokemon stream complete Pokémon Red?

Feb 25, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.12%chance

469106

OptionVotes

YES

3211

313

More Houthi attacks in the Red Sea by when?

Jan 27, 12:21 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

42769

OptionProbability

Before Jun 2026

Before May 2026

Before Apr 2026

Before Mar 2026

Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox switch leagues in baseball before 2028

Jul 4, 2:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.52%chance

162322

OptionVotes

YES

2929

808

When will the next red rising book(7) be released?

Aug 2, 10:14 PMAug 30, 10:14 PM

6723

OptionProbability

2027

2029

Other

2028

2026

1st half 2024

2nd half 2024

1st half 2025

2023

2nd half 2025

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

Apr 28, 10:24 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

38.58%chance

15583

OptionVotes

YES

1143

899

Will the Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 11, 1:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.11%chance

5246

OptionVotes

YES

744

405

Will "Red-Thing-Ism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 25, 3:26 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.23%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

1003

984

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2050?

Dec 6, 11:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3140

OptionProbability

Endangered

Critically Endangered

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Other

New Conservation Status

Not Evaluated

Extinct in the Wild

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Vulnerable

Extinct

Data Deficient

Will "Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 23, 12:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

1051

992

Which of these characters will be alive at the end of Red God (Red Rising book 7)?

Jan 25, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Darrow

Lysander

Sevro

Pax

Red News

Prediction markets for Red

Prediction markets for Red

Prediction markets for Red

Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

Will Greenland be renamed "Red, White, and Blueland"

Will the official ClaudePlaysPokemon stream complete Pokémon Red?

More Houthi attacks in the Red Sea by when?

Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox switch leagues in baseball before 2028

When will the next red rising book(7) be released?

Will all Five Eyes countries be governed by red parties before the end of Trump’s second term?

Will the Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) become extinct in the current century?

Will "Red-Thing-Ism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2050?

Will "Global Call for AI Red Lines - Signed by Nobe..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Which of these characters will be alive at the end of Red God (Red Rising book 7)?

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