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Prediction markets for Red One

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.46%chance

750336450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6381

3459

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.04%chance

4852336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3129

336

MIHAWK>SHANKS STOCKS

May 4, 3:56 AMMay 4, 4:59 AM

16340289

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2552

1121

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1411132

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

62

53

43

29

10

5

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.28%chance

122625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7188

4278

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

34.36%chance

201053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

908

Will the US strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?

Jan 26, 10:26 PMApr 29, 11:59 PM

42.28%chance

9841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

856

Officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2028?

Dec 17, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.55%chance

4266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

859

Will the Northeast Face of Mashenbrum be climed by end of 2032?

Sep 10, 4:48 AMSep 17, 6:59 AM

46.7%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

936

If you had to go on a date with Cabbage or Red Currant, which one would you pick?

Oct 1, 4:46 AM

80

One state, two state, red state, blue state

Oct 15, 9:49 PM

720

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