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Prediction markets for Red One

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

8.77%chance

793414172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14104

2043

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

MIHAWK>SHANKS STOCKS

May 4, 3:56 AMMay 4, 4:59 AM

16340289

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2552

1121

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2333334

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

39

15

5

0

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.57%chance

5212004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8319

3970

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.41%chance

221229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

1030

Officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2028?

Dec 17, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.98%chance

7672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

799

Will the Northeast Face of Mashenbrum be climed by end of 2032?

Sep 10, 4:48 AMSep 17, 6:59 AM

28.9%chance

3570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1568

638

How many races will Red Eye win in Marbula One Season 7?

Oct 23, 6:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4

5

17

17

17

17

17

17

If you had to go on a date with Cabbage or Red Currant, which one would you pick?

Oct 1, 4:46 AM

80

One state, two state, red state, blue state

Oct 15, 9:49 PM

730

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