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Prediction markets for Red One

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

32%chance

788397421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5430

3850

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

MIHAWK>SHANKS STOCKS

May 4, 3:56 AMMay 4, 4:59 AM

16340289

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2552

1121

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2331706

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

50

29

9

0

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.23%chance

489899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6256

4591

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

20.7%chance

295025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

832

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.26%chance

201078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

883

Officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2028?

Dec 17, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.93%chance

6622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

832

Will the Northeast Face of Mashenbrum be climed by end of 2032?

Sep 10, 4:48 AMSep 17, 6:59 AM

28.9%chance

3570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1568

638

If you had to go on a date with Cabbage or Red Currant, which one would you pick?

Oct 1, 4:46 AM

80

One state, two state, red state, blue state

Oct 15, 9:49 PM

730

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