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Prediction markets for Red One

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

783394355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7386

3139

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

MIHAWK>SHANKS STOCKS

May 4, 3:56 AMMay 4, 4:59 AM

16340289

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2552

1121

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1712257

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

64

56

44

30

9

5

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

346931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6506

4501

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.26%chance

201078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

883

Will Denmark implement a wealth tax by end of 2027?

Mar 18, 10:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.18%chance

5328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

753

Will there be at least one red card in PSG Arsenal Champions League Final?

May 7, 11:35 AMMay 30, 11:33 AM

23.58%chance

280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Will the Northeast Face of Mashenbrum be climed by end of 2032?

Sep 10, 4:48 AMSep 17, 6:59 AM

46.7%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

936

If you had to go on a date with Cabbage or Red Currant, which one would you pick?

Oct 1, 4:46 AM

80

One state, two state, red state, blue state

Oct 15, 9:49 PM

730

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