OptionProbability
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with minimal concessions
Deal with major concessions
Military coup (Artesh)
Popular takeover
Balkanization/long civil war
Venezuela-style puppet state
Voluntary transition of power
35
28
26
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1031
884
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
55
47
46
45
