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Prediction markets for Reflection

C++26 has static reflection?

Apr 24, 12:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

93.57%chance

16642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

375

18

Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?

Feb 23, 5:59 PMJan 1, 5:57 PM

48.34%chance

12621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

124

Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

Feb 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.91%chance

16606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

950

Self-Reflection: Do I Act Immaturely In the Comments? [Permanent]

Apr 12, 2:46 AMApr 12, 4:59 AM

11361

OptionProbability

YES

NO

244

152

What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?

Feb 18, 11:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10223

OptionProbability

Weather Forecaster

Entertainment

Sex

Other

Therapy

There will be nothing that satisfies the criteria for highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI

Politics

Science

Career

Education

Coaching

Community

News

42

25

15

11

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Reflect Orbital send 60 satellites into space by 2030?

May 4, 7:08 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12%chance

7209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will "Reflect Orbital" have a solar farm customer before 2030

Nov 3, 11:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.6%chance

6195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

49

If the long reflection begins, will it end within 2x its advertised duration?

Nov 4, 12:06 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM

64.72%chance

7117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

94

When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?

Oct 5, 10:04 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

481

OptionProbability

Oct 13 to Oct 19

By Oct 12, 2026

Oct 20 to Oct 31

Nov 1 to Nov 15

Not by Nov 15, 2026

76

6

6

6

6

Will fibromyalgia be shown to reflect one main condition rather than many?

Jan 20, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Will the next neural network architectural discovery explicitly incorporate some kind of self-reflection?

Apr 18, 9:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

44.35%chance

438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

126

Will "OpenAI #10: Reflections" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 7, 9:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

29.11%chance

236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

45

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