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Prediction markets for Reflection

By when will Reflect Orbital successfully transmit sunlight to a paying customer?

Sep 24, 9:58 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

62369

OptionProbability

2029-12-31

2027-12-31

2026-12-31

38

32

26

Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?

Feb 23, 5:59 PMJan 1, 5:57 PM

48.34%chance

12621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

124

Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

Feb 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.44%chance

15556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

956

Will Reflect Orbital send two satellites into space by 2030?

May 4, 6:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

65.73%chance

11370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

72

Self-Reflection: Do I Act Immaturely In the Comments? [Permanent]

Apr 12, 2:46 AMApr 12, 4:59 AM

11361

OptionProbability

YES

NO

244

152

What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?

Feb 18, 11:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10223

OptionProbability

Weather Forecaster

Entertainment

Sex

Other

Therapy

There will be nothing that satisfies the criteria for highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI

Politics

Science

Career

Education

Coaching

Community

News

42

25

15

11

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Reflect Orbital send 60 satellites into space by 2030?

May 4, 7:08 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12%chance

7209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

DGG Self-Reflection Stock (Permanent)

Nov 16, 4:55 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

11194

OptionProbability

NO

YES

200

180

Will "Reflect Orbital" have a solar farm customer before 2030

Nov 3, 11:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.14%chance

5165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will fibromyalgia be shown to reflect one main condition rather than many?

Jan 20, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Will "OpenAI #10: Reflections" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 7, 9:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

29.11%chance

236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

45

Will the next neural network architectural discovery explicitly incorporate some kind of self-reflection?

Apr 18, 9:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.62%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

135

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