Reflection AI News

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.48%chance

315854929

OptionVotes

YES

8020

3477

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

795429284

OptionVotes

YES

34777

14340

What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?

Aug 26, 1:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

326102019

OptionProbability

Google Deepmind

OpenAI

Anthropic

XAI

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40%chance

336100525

OptionVotes

YES

4308

3896

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

YES

1099

815

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

52.58%chance

365551

OptionVotes

YES

4800

4210

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

594589

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.23%chance

261269

OptionVotes

YES

1408

785

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2026?

Jan 17, 9:37 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

57.7%chance

231241

OptionVotes

YES

1163

672

Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?

Feb 23, 5:59 PMJan 1, 5:57 PM

48.34%chance

12621

OptionVotes

YES

214

124

Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

Feb 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.44%chance

15556

OptionVotes

YES

1086

956

What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?

Feb 18, 11:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10223

OptionProbability

Weather Forecaster

Entertainment

Sex

Other

Therapy

There will be nothing that satisfies the criteria for highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI

Politics

Science

Career

Education

Coaching

Community

News

Reflection AI News

Prediction markets for Reflection AI

Prediction markets for Reflection AI

Prediction markets for Reflection AI

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2026?

Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?

Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?

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