Reflection AI News

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.25%chance

325859713

OptionVotes

YES

7539

3536

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.84%chance

832515935

OptionVotes

YES

58313

10496

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

340104594

OptionVotes

YES

5080

3679

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

YES

1041

910

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

1177

880

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.95%chance

13894

OptionVotes

YES

1082

924

Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?

Feb 23, 5:59 PMJan 1, 5:57 PM

48.34%chance

12621

OptionVotes

YES

214

124

Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

Feb 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.91%chance

16606

OptionVotes

YES

1136

950

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48%chance

6423

OptionVotes

YES

1041

961

What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?

Feb 18, 11:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10223

OptionProbability

Weather Forecaster

Entertainment

Sex

Other

Therapy

There will be nothing that satisfies the criteria for highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI

Politics

Science

Career

Education

Coaching

Community

News

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

YES

1013

986

Reflection AI News

Prediction markets for Reflection AI

Prediction markets for Reflection AI

Prediction markets for Reflection AI

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*?

Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

What will be the main theme of the biggest highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI by 2028?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

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