Refundable News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45%chance

21101878813

OptionVotes

YES

4797

3929

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

YES

15156

6598

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

18607

6485

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

Nov 5, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4710901

OptionProbability

101-150

151-200

201-250

50-100

251-300

301-350

351-400

401-450

451-500

501+

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.97%chance

808792

OptionVotes

YES

1176

716

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Feb 20, 11:48 PMJan 20, 11:47 PM

42.37%chance

252335

OptionVotes

YES

1166

857

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.27%chance

11778

OptionVotes

YES

1334

1083

Will South Carolina enact a refundable EITC in 2026?

Mar 15, 3:31 PMJun 1, 3:31 PM

37.31%chance

258

OptionVotes

YES

300

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Dec 11, 11:22 PMMay 4, 10:11 PM

437

OptionProbability

the exchange fee will be removed for euro-euro conversions , but without refunding victims

NO, Prague is EU capital and charging exchange rates for Euro to Euro conversions isn't legal - we will learn about the fines ot court orders or other punishments

YES, it's fully legal - no consequences for ATM owners

exchange fee from Euro to Euro is gray area and companies can operate if they have good lawyers - the issue will be settled, and ATM continue operate as is

Other

Will 80% of EU countries have adopted a deposit refund system for bottles by 2030?

Aug 17, 10:54 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.09%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will South Carolina H.3492 (partially refundable EITC) be signed into law in 2026?

Mar 15, 5:33 PMJun 1, 5:33 PM

20.65%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

265

180

I will refund the creation cost of any good markets on what will happen after Israel takes Gaza.

Oct 17, 12:03 PM

Refundable News

Prediction markets for Refundable

Prediction markets for Refundable

Prediction markets for Refundable

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Will South Carolina enact a refundable EITC in 2026?

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Will 80% of EU countries have adopted a deposit refund system for bottles by 2030?

Will South Carolina H.3492 (partially refundable EITC) be signed into law in 2026?

I will refund the creation cost of any good markets on what will happen after Israel takes Gaza.

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