Refundable News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

43.39%chance

21801950034

OptionVotes

YES

4956

3802

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

18607

6485

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

Nov 5, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4910962

OptionProbability

101-150

151-200

201-250

50-100

251-300

301-350

351-400

401-450

451-500

501+

When will I get my hat?

Apr 23, 1:46 AMFeb 1, 4:59 PM

296598

OptionProbability

June/July 2026

August until end of 2026

Staff refunds my order / no delivery attempted

May 2026

Apr 2026

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

135579

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Feb 20, 11:48 PMJan 20, 11:47 PM

72.03%chance

293110

OptionVotes

YES

1605

623

Will South Carolina H.3492 (partially refundable EITC) be signed into law in 2026?

Mar 15, 5:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

8.46%chance

4269

OptionVotes

YES

433

227

Will South Carolina enact a refundable EITC in 2026?

Mar 15, 3:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

17.65%chance

7190

OptionVotes

YES

257

212

Will Polymarket refund a million dollars on any market before 2028?

Jun 18, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.21%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

1055

991

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Dec 11, 11:22 PMMay 4, 10:11 PM

437

OptionProbability

the exchange fee will be removed for euro-euro conversions , but without refunding victims

NO, Prague is EU capital and charging exchange rates for Euro to Euro conversions isn't legal - we will learn about the fines ot court orders or other punishments

YES, it's fully legal - no consequences for ATM owners

exchange fee from Euro to Euro is gray area and companies can operate if they have good lawyers - the issue will be settled, and ATM continue operate as is

Other

Will 80% of EU countries have adopted a deposit refund system for bottles by 2030?

Aug 17, 10:54 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.09%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

105

I will refund the creation cost of any good markets on what will happen after Israel takes Gaza.

Oct 17, 12:03 PM

Refundable News

Prediction markets for Refundable

Prediction markets for Refundable

Prediction markets for Refundable

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

When will I get my hat?

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Will South Carolina H.3492 (partially refundable EITC) be signed into law in 2026?

Will South Carolina enact a refundable EITC in 2026?

Will Polymarket refund a million dollars on any market before 2028?

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Will 80% of EU countries have adopted a deposit refund system for bottles by 2030?

I will refund the creation cost of any good markets on what will happen after Israel takes Gaza.

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