Refundable News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

46.31%chance

20781816781

OptionVotes

YES

4672

4034

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

YES

15156

6598

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

Nov 5, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

459866

OptionProbability

101-150

151-200

201-250

50-100

251-300

301-350

351-400

401-450

451-500

501+

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.22%chance

808788

OptionVotes

YES

1182

712

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

23.44%chance

88041

OptionVotes

YES

15910

7208

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

YES

1439

695

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.8%chance

8593

OptionVotes

YES

1295

1115

Will the SCOTUS expect the US government to refund the tariffs?

Nov 8, 9:39 PMJun 1, 8:28 PM

18533

OptionProbability

No, because SCOTUS rules them to be constitutional

No, even though SCOTUS ruled them to be unconstitutional

Partially

Yes, entirely or as much as possible

Faucet. Borrow money forever.

Mar 30, 10:11 PMDec 30, 9:03 PM

38.1%chance

12456

OptionVotes

YES

1043

999

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Dec 11, 11:22 PMMay 4, 10:11 PM

437

OptionProbability

the exchange fee will be removed for euro-euro conversions , but without refunding victims

NO, Prague is EU capital and charging exchange rates for Euro to Euro conversions isn't legal - we will learn about the fines ot court orders or other punishments

YES, it's fully legal - no consequences for ATM owners

exchange fee from Euro to Euro is gray area and companies can operate if they have good lawyers - the issue will be settled, and ATM continue operate as is

Other

Will 80% of EU countries have adopted a deposit refund system for bottles by 2030?

Aug 17, 10:54 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.09%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

105

I will refund the creation cost of any good markets on what will happen after Israel takes Gaza.

Oct 17, 12:03 PM

Refundable News

Prediction markets for Refundable

Prediction markets for Refundable

Prediction markets for Refundable

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Will the SCOTUS expect the US government to refund the tariffs?

Faucet. Borrow money forever.

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Will 80% of EU countries have adopted a deposit refund system for bottles by 2030?

I will refund the creation cost of any good markets on what will happen after Israel takes Gaza.

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