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Prediction markets for Regulation

If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

Mar 30, 2:17 PMMar 31, 3:59 AM

69.12%chance

9611309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1171

891

Will Trump call for further regulation or banning of AR-15 style rifles by the end of 2025?

Jul 14, 6:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.13%chance

263046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3978

1336

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.34%chance

272080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

850

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Jul 15, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

151640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will there be federal regulations in America against foreign waifus by 2030?

Nov 17, 11:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

20.77%chance

81488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1953

512

Will regulators force a split in Alphabet before 2030?

Jul 19, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.58%chance

281223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

691

By 2030 will regulations or laws make it prohibitively difficult to develop AI models in the United States?

Jul 25, 3:39 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

20.3%chance

91000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1982

505

Will there be new federal US regulation for the consumption of VR pornography before 2030?

Jan 15, 1:34 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

15.98%chance

17417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

922

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

842

Will AI safety and regulation be mandatory training courses for students working with AI by the year 2035 under Federal Law?

Dec 10, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.19%chance

12226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

943

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?

Feb 26, 8:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.31%chance

1198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

997

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