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Prediction markets for Regulation

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

3134762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25099

3984

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.34%chance

272080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

850

Will there be federal regulations in America against foreign waifus by 2030?

Nov 17, 11:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

19.17%chance

91588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2053

487

Will regulators force a split in Alphabet before 2030?

Jul 19, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.64%chance

291413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

948

By 2030 will regulations or laws make it prohibitively difficult to develop AI models in the United States?

Jul 25, 3:39 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

20.13%chance

101010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1992

502

Which species will get the first regulator-approved drug with lifespan extension as the indication?

Oct 1, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6680

OptionProbability

Dogs

None before 2035

Another species

Humans

41

25

21

12

By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?

Apr 18, 6:13 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

53.49%chance

15560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

740

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.93%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

39.02%chance

8401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Will AI safety and regulation be mandatory training courses for students working with AI by the year 2035 under Federal Law?

Dec 10, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.28%chance

13326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

916

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

994

Will the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?

Feb 26, 8:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.79%chance

12108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

992

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