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Prediction markets for Regulation Day

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.9%chance

316987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4412

227

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.1%chance

273066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1838

546

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:38 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

62804

OptionProbability

90 - 98

Below 90

99 - 107

108 - 116

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

30

26

25

12

3

3

2

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

60.46%chance

102373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1237

809

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

What will Adjacent’s BLUE political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:42 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

71788

OptionProbability

99 - 107

108 - 116

90 - 98

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

Below 90

29

27

16

12

6

6

4

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.62%chance

141096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

974

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

Dec 21, 10:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.79%chance

31889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

915

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

Will AI get a medical license in the USA? (5 year question)

Aug 19, 5:32 PMAug 19, 6:29 PM

20.88%chance

11565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

630

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

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