Regulation Day News

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

3638

276

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

172442

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2028

2029

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.37%chance

222338

OptionVotes

YES

1439

697

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

22.58%chance

61644

OptionVotes

YES

1852

540

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.87%chance

131091

OptionVotes

YES

1024

978

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

Dec 21, 10:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.8%chance

30869

OptionVotes

YES

1418

915

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

YES

1008

987

Will AI get a medical license in the USA? (5 year question)

Aug 19, 5:32 PMAug 19, 6:29 PM

20.88%chance

11565

OptionVotes

YES

1052

630

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Will Washington firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Washington"

May 3, 2:15 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM

71.3%chance

987

OptionVotes

YES

682

629

Regulation Day News

Prediction markets for Regulation Day

Prediction markets for Regulation Day

Prediction markets for Regulation Day

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Will AI get a medical license in the USA? (5 year question)

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will Washington firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Washington"

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