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Prediction markets for Regulation Day

Did DOGE cause a data breach during 2025?

Feb 7, 3:17 AMJun 30, 5:18 PM

10%chance

12519566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will the MLB change the official rules in order to limit or ban the "torpedo bat" by opening day 2026?

Apr 1, 4:19 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

1.06%chance

179722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9681

103

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

768

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

29.8%chance

51492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

652

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.78%chance

131089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

977

Will there be a robot uprising by 2035?

Dec 21, 10:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9.8%chance

30869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

915

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

Will AI get a medical license in the USA? (5 year question)

Aug 19, 5:32 PMAug 19, 6:29 PM

20.88%chance

11565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

630

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will Washington firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Washington"

May 3, 2:15 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM

71.3%chance

987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

682

629

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