REINFORCE News

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

28550

2982

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

YES

3092

324

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.78%chance

394345

OptionVotes

YES

1390

541

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

54.82%chance

191736

OptionVotes

YES

1251

458

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.55%chance

121107

OptionVotes

YES

1349

746

Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (permanent)

Mar 27, 2:23 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

19816

OptionProbability

YES

368

300

Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) a significant component of publicly known SOTA alignment techniques by 2028

Sep 16, 9:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.13%chance

15490

OptionVotes

YES

1236

906

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Jul 24, 12:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

1325

OptionProbability

under Crest Canyon (tunnel)

under Camino Del Mar (tunnel)

San Dieguito Bridge to I-5 (tunnel)

double-track & reinforce existing route on Del Mar Bluffs (no tunnel)

don't do anything ("no build")

Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.81%chance

9183

OptionVotes

YES

197

115

If Tetra draws a shoggoth about this paper or post, will it get >3K views in 24 hours?

Oct 7, 10:00 PMJan 1, 10:49 PM

380

OptionProbability

FutureLivingLab, iFlow ROME, Safety-Aligned Data Composition https://huggingface.co/papers/2512.24873

MIRI, "How could an LLM destroy humanity?" short https://youtube.com/shorts/Z6oPeFvp6_s

MIRI, An International Agreement to Prevent the Premature Creation of Artificial Superintelligence, Notes on Article VI https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.10783

Epoch AI, How many AI agents could run on the AI chips shipped through 2027? https://epoch.ai/publications/estimating-the-agent-population

Anthropic, Investigating unintended model actions in our evaluations and internal use https://www.anthropic.com/news/investigating-unintended-model-actions

Kirgis & Hua, The Continual Constitutional Convention: How language models revise the documents that govern them https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/c9woewdY9ddsPqf3J/the-continual-constitutional-convention-how-language-models

Anthropic, Rosu & Wang, Training Alignment Auditors via Reinforcement Learning https://alignment.anthropic.com/2026/training-alignment-auditors/

100

Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?

Jan 2, 9:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Polychromic Objectives for Reinforcement Learning be generalized to manifolds by 2050?

Jul 1, 8:06 PM

REINFORCE News

Prediction markets for REINFORCE

Prediction markets for REINFORCE

Prediction markets for REINFORCE

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (permanent)

Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) a significant component of publicly known SOTA alignment techniques by 2028

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?

If Tetra draws a shoggoth about this paper or post, will it get >3K views in 24 hours?

Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?

Will Polychromic Objectives for Reinforcement Learning be generalized to *manifolds* by 2050?

Latest stories

Will Polychromic Objectives for Reinforcement Learning be generalized to manifolds by 2050?