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Reinforcement Learning News

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.78%chance

394345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

541

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

283

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

604

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

121122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.55%chance

121107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

746

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

570

Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (permanent)

Mar 27, 2:23 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

19816

OptionProbability

YES

NO

368

300

Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) a significant component of publicly known SOTA alignment techniques by 2028

Sep 16, 9:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.13%chance

15490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

906

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7135

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

56

29

11

4

[Carlini questions] Most improvements in best AI systems direct result of the prior generation of AI systems

Mar 24, 2:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

370

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2027

66

41

Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?

Jan 2, 9:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL?

Jan 29, 4:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14

OptionProbability

Discovery of novel concept in mathematics

Design of novel and widely useful electronic component

Design of novel and widely useful mechanical component

Proposal of new economics model

AI proposes a convincing explanation about about a previous event

60

50

50

50

50

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