Reinforcement Learning News

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

YES

3137

320

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.78%chance

394345

OptionVotes

YES

1390

541

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

11.84%chance

254017

OptionVotes

YES

2618

247

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

1151

604

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Apr 22, 7:20 PMDec 31, 8:08 PM

21.57%chance

121502

OptionVotes

YES

1907

524

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

141487

OptionVotes

YES

1991

502

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.55%chance

121107

OptionVotes

YES

1349

746

Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (permanent)

Mar 27, 2:23 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

19816

OptionProbability

YES

368

300

Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) a significant component of publicly known SOTA alignment techniques by 2028

Sep 16, 9:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.13%chance

15490

OptionVotes

YES

1236

906

What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL?

Jan 29, 4:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

550

OptionProbability

Discovery of novel concept in mathematics

Design of novel and widely useful electronic component

Design of novel and widely useful mechanical component

Proposal of new economics model

AI proposes a convincing explanation about about a previous event

Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?

Jan 2, 9:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Polychromic Objectives for Reinforcement Learning be generalized to manifolds by 2050?

Jul 1, 8:06 PM

Reinforcement Learning News

Prediction markets for Reinforcement Learning

Prediction markets for Reinforcement Learning

Prediction markets for Reinforcement Learning

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (permanent)

Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) a significant component of publicly known SOTA alignment techniques by 2028

What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL?

Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?

Will Polychromic Objectives for Reinforcement Learning be generalized to *manifolds* by 2050?

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Will Polychromic Objectives for Reinforcement Learning be generalized to manifolds by 2050?