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Prediction markets for Reinforcement Learning

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.78%chance

394345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

541

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

13.28%chance

233880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2480

267

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.88%chance

222949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1996

503

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

604

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Apr 22, 7:20 PMDec 31, 8:08 PM

21.57%chance

121502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

524

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.25%chance

131372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

519

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.55%chance

121107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

746

Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (permanent)

Mar 27, 2:23 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

19816

OptionProbability

YES

NO

368

300

Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) a significant component of publicly known SOTA alignment techniques by 2028

Sep 16, 9:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.13%chance

15490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

906

Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute

Jul 12, 6:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

6216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

833

Will a paper titled "maximum sparsity reinforcement learning" come out by EOY2027?

Jan 2, 9:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Polychromic Objectives for Reinforcement Learning be generalized to manifolds by 2050?

Jul 1, 8:06 PM

00

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