Relative Performance News

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.33%chance

34552766301

OptionVotes

YES

10133

9455

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

4.7%chance

304226846

OptionVotes

YES

3805

789

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

13.34%chance

297153069

OptionVotes

YES

1877

859

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35%chance

298114879

OptionVotes

YES

1232

1177

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.14%chance

24393000

OptionVotes

YES

1108

944

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Nov 28, 10:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

21359835

OptionVotes

YES

1117

811

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Nov 28, 10:02 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

28.46%chance

10833113

OptionVotes

YES

1291

975

[ACX 2026] What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

Jan 6, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

116930

OptionProbability

90-100%

80-90%

100-110%

70-80%

60-70%

50-60%

110-120%

>120%

30-40%

40-50%

<20%

20-30%

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

1073

935

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?

Dec 15, 12:43 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

34.84%chance

363486

OptionVotes

YES

1070

946

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Mar 18, 3:21 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

4212

OptionProbability

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Manifold -0.28 (Better) Brier)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Manifold -0.05 (Better) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Mar 18, 3:19 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

2201

OptionProbability

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Nate +0.05 (Worse) Brier)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Nate +0.28 (Worse) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Relative Performance News

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

[ACX 2026] What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

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