Relative Performance News

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.33%chance

34462765805

OptionVotes

YES

9920

9638

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

4.24%chance

299224984

OptionVotes

YES

4153

772

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

12.59%chance

292149875

OptionVotes

YES

1972

845

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

292113507

OptionVotes

YES

1369

1140

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.95%chance

23390642

OptionVotes

YES

1204

913

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Nov 28, 10:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

42%chance

21158696

OptionVotes

YES

1067

875

Will we get AGI before 2048?

Feb 10, 4:11 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

80.56%chance

7939507

OptionVotes

YES

1465

846

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Nov 28, 10:02 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

29%chance

10832763

OptionVotes

YES

1269

984

[ACX 2026] What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

Jan 6, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

116636

OptionProbability

90-100%

80-90%

100-110%

70-80%

60-70%

50-60%

110-120%

>120%

30-40%

40-50%

<20%

20-30%

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

1033

971

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Mar 18, 3:21 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

4212

OptionProbability

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Manifold -0.28 (Better) Brier)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Manifold -0.05 (Better) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Mar 18, 3:19 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

2201

OptionProbability

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Nate +0.05 (Worse) Brier)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Nate +0.28 (Worse) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Relative Performance News

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Will we get AGI before 2048?

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

[ACX 2026] What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

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