Relative Performance News

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.3%chance

34832801075

OptionVotes

YES

10807

8736

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

2.26%chance

334276812

OptionVotes

YES

7022

681

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

24.15%chance

336171352

OptionVotes

YES

1089

1031

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

50%chance

341138327

OptionVotes

YES

1520

782

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597852

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@Quroe

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

Pat Scott @Stralor

@Celene

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Nov 28, 10:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

58%chance

23866393

OptionVotes

YES

1358

584

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Nov 28, 10:02 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

42.7%chance

11433753

OptionVotes

YES

1211

856

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

85.58%chance

1721452

OptionVotes

YES

35974

6720

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

84.61%chance

619024

OptionVotes

YES

23443

4266

Given an uptick in IVF, how will Progyny ($PGNY) perform relative to Nasdaq as a whole

Sep 24, 3:53 AMMay 2, 6:59 AM

34253

OptionProbability

0.50 - 0.79x

1 - 1.49x

.8- .99x

0.2- 0.49x

1.5 - 1.99x

2.0x - 4.99x

Below 0.2x

5.0x - 9.99x

above 10x

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Mar 18, 3:19 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

3351

OptionProbability

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Nate +0.05 (Worse) Brier)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Nate +0.28 (Worse) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Mar 18, 3:21 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

4212

OptionProbability

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Manifold -0.28 (Better) Brier)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Manifold -0.05 (Better) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Relative Performance News

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Given an uptick in IVF, how will Progyny ($PGNY) perform relative to Nasdaq as a whole

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

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