Relative Performance News

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.65%chance

34742790719

OptionVotes

YES

10533

8988

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

3.57%chance

311233396

OptionVotes

YES

4801

746

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

13.22%chance

312158967

OptionVotes

YES

1891

857

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

38.35%chance

310127614

OptionVotes

YES

1294

1070

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

37.4%chance

26497675

OptionVotes

YES

1101

766

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Nov 28, 10:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

49.08%chance

22564141

OptionVotes

YES

1187

732

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Nov 28, 10:02 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

25.17%chance

10833263

OptionVotes

YES

1441

920

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

76.13%chance

1611407

OptionVotes

YES

25950

9022

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

79.08%chance

59574

OptionVotes

YES

19443

5143

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Mar 18, 3:21 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

4212

OptionProbability

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Manifold -0.28 (Better) Brier)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Manifold -0.05 (Better) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Mar 18, 3:19 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

2201

OptionProbability

Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)

Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)

Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)

Economy (1 of 16 Resolved, Nate +0.05 (Worse) Brier)

Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)

Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Nate +0.28 (Worse) Brier)

Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)

Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)

Media (0 of 8 Resolved)

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

May 2, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 100,000

100,000 - 499,999

500,000 - 999,999

1,000,000 - 2,499,999

2,500,000 - 4,999,999

5,000,000 - 9,999,999

10,000,000+

Relative Performance News

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Prediction markets for Relative Performance

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Manifold perform best relative to Nate Silver?

Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

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