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Prediction markets for Relative Strength

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

1450292

OptionProbability

Dec 2026 or later/never

Nov 2026

Oct 2026

May 2026

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

74

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

1

1

1

1

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.09%chance

6710247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

331

Will Japan win the 2026 World Cup?

Feb 1, 5:12 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

1.42%chance

165353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

983

56

Will a vacuum lift technology be discovered or invented before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.25%chance

281570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1526

837

Who is the best human ever to exist (revised edition)

May 25, 3:37 AMJul 1, 12:00 AM

221560

OptionProbability

Other

Leonardo da vinci

Peter Singer

John Ronald Reuel Tolkien

Jesus

Martin Luther King, Jr.

Plato (Aristocles)

Emperor Krishnadevaraya of the Vijayanagara Empire

John von Neumann

Alexander the Great

Jane Goodall

Milarepa

Augustus Caesar

Hildegard of Bingen

Richard Feynman

Vitali Klitschko

Dave Bautista

Alexander Stubb

Gustavus Adolphus

Julius Caesar

Benjamin Franklin

Lord Byron

Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart

Hypatia

Johann Sebastian Bach

Leonhard Euler

Cleopatra VII

Mansa Musa

Fritz Haber

Joseph Stalin

Donald J Trump

Magnus Carlsen

John Urschel

Myron Rolle

Elon Musk

Orson Welles

joe biden

Huey Long

Marie Curie

19

11

8

7

5

5

4

4

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Doom if AGI by 2040?

Apr 18, 1:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

91270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

89

58

Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026?

Jan 8, 12:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.27%chance

8526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

474

21

Facebook's default group avatar configuration becomes more representative, by mid 2026

Feb 18, 8:46 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.8%chance

469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

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