Relevance AI News

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

65.56%chance

298534392

OptionVotes

YES

5399

4087

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.84%chance

832515935

OptionVotes

YES

58313

10496

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.2%chance

8888227

OptionVotes

YES

86671

36670

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19544914

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

118384

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

Robot Childcare by end of 2030?

Sep 2, 5:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.05%chance

274919

OptionVotes

YES

3380

296

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.73%chance

514506

OptionVotes

YES

1297

771

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

154159

OptionVotes

YES

13624

8759

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

673086

OptionVotes

YES

1508

1036

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

3864

3220

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

4047

3968

Neurotechnology is most relevant for AI safety with respect to...

Nov 5, 11:37 PM

180

Relevance AI News

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Prediction markets for Relevance AI

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Q-Day before 2030?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Robot Childcare by end of 2030?

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Neurotechnology is most relevant for AI safety with respect to...

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