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Prediction markets for Relevant Period

Will Polyoptions volume hit $100 million in 2026?

Dec 11, 10:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.31%chance

357860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2951

339

Will Polyoptions volume hit $1 billion in 2026?

Dec 8, 10:49 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

6.66%chance

377514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3742

267

Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030

Jul 17, 4:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

42%chance

707063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

725

Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?

Aug 4, 10:36 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

85.28%chance

222148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1820

750

Will real median income for family households in the US be higher in 2028 than in 2024?

Nov 14, 2:58 AMSep 21, 6:59 AM

64.6%chance

51548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

740

Is 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025)

Feb 6, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.6%chance

231084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

806

Malcolm Collins or Simone Collins convicted of felony before 2035

Dec 29, 6:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

26.05%chance

5685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1685

593

Will glioblastoma (an aggressive brain cancer) have a 5-year relative survival rate greater than 15% in the US in 2035?

Mar 1, 12:24 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

41.34%chance

14661

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

913

IF there is a war between China and the United States, will China use ICBMs to deliver non-nuclear strikes to the US?

Dec 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

24.52%chance

9416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

94

Software Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 7, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.34%chance

9228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

63

2026 AFL trade, draft and free agency prop bets

May 18, 7:50 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

374

OptionProbability

Zach Merrett goes to Hawthorn

Zak Butters goes to the Bulldogs

Toby Greene goes to Geelong

Lachie Neale goes to West Coast

72

50

43

41

ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040

Mar 26, 8:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

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