OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
2+ red cards in any match
Goal from last kick of the game
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
Mexico survives group stage
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Black player gets the red card
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Team finishes match with 9 players
French-born player scores against France
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
“Puto” chant at match
Referee falls down
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
Canada survives group stage
Trump still alive at end of final match
3+ penalty shootout
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
Neymar plays in a match
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
20+ penalty goals
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 10.5 red cards
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Trump attends match
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
Players cleat falls off their foot
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
US scores in every single group stage match
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
South American team reaches semi-final
Champion is unbeaten
Bottle thrown on field
Champion is a first place group stage winner
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
2+ European countries reach top 4
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
Asian player misses penalty kick
Ronaldo gets in referee face
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
Messi gets a yellow card
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
Asian player gets the red card
No red cards issued in the Final match
Any host nation in quarter final
US goes further than Mexico
Both teams in final have red on their flag
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
Freddy attends the final match
Team loses after leading 2-0
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
Someone escorted off field shirtless
More own goals than red cards in tourney
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
Elon Musk attends match
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
Messi to score a free kick
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
Player tears their ACL
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Flares in stands during match in USA
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Betting scandal reported
Spain goes further than France
Laser pointer on goalie during match
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Goal scored within 1st minute
VAR overturns second yellow card
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
2 UEFA teams in final
Any match is canceled or postponed
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
30+ penalty goals
USA player gets the red card
5+ hat tricks
Disruption at Iran match
Canada goes further than US
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
Team captain gets red card
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
Winning team has a foreign manager
Bald person gets the red card
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Smoke bomb during match in USA
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Messi scores on every game he plays
Ronaldo does not start
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
Player gets spat on during match
25+ people arrested at stadium
Salt Bae attending a match
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
England loses on penalties
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Goal scored from own half
Fans invade field during match
Player throws captains armband
Headbutt during match
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
King Charles attends match
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Another match with 3+ red cards
Asia team reaches semi final
Football is coming home?
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Major security incident
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
15+ cards in any match
Player bit during match
Trump attends 3 or more games
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
Bonnie Blue attending a match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Match is forfeited
Trump dancing at match
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
10+ goals in any match
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
Team gets removed or disqualified
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
USA plays Iran
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
Player suffers cardiac arrest
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Player shits in the pants during match
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Players / members of team attempt to defect
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Ronaldo does jerkin move
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
Player dies during World Cup
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
All 3 host countries win the opener
Ronaldo scores before Messi
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
98
98
97
97
96
96
94
94
93
93
92
91
90
90
86
86
85
85
84
82
82
81
80
80
80
80
77
76
76
76
75
73
72
68
66
64
63
63
62
62
61
60
60
59
59
58
58
57
57
55
54
54
54
54
53
50
50
50
50
49
48
47
47
46
46
46
46
45
45
44
44
43
43
43
42
42
41
41
40
39
39
39
39
38
38
38
38
37
36
36
36
35
34
32
32
32
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
9
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A WR has 1,700+ receiving yards
A player catches 9+ interceptions
A QB is sacked 50+ times
A QB wins MVP
A QB wins (offensive) ROTY
A team wins 14+ games in the regular season
Super Bowl winning team has the same starting QB in Week 1 as in the Super Bowl
Rookie WR with the highest receiving yards is not Harrison Jr, Nabers, or Odunze
5 Teams finish with positive Rush EPA in the regular season
Regular Season MVP plays for the team that drafted them
A running back wins OPOY
The NFL dissolves before 2050
A team scores over 70 points in any single game
An octopus* is scored in Week 1
10+ games ending in Scorigami (9 last season)
Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift on a Chief's game day
A special teams touchdown will be scored during the playoffs
A rookie wins MVP
A rookie wins OPOY
A rookie wins DPOY
A veteran in their first season with a new team wins MVP
Super Bowl is a rematch (KC vs SF)
A QB passes for 5,000+ yards
A player gets 18+ sacks
New kick return rules result in 50%+ of kickoffs being returned (2023: 22%)
Team goes 17-0
Team goes 0-17
Chiefs/49ers/Ravens Win Super Bowl
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
Gukesh Dommaraju
Fabiano Caruana
Hikaru Nakamura
Wei Yi
Magnus Carlsen
53
38
3
2
2
1
OptionProbability
Taylor Rehmet
Leigh Wambsganss
Other
76
18
6
OptionVotes
YES
NO
425
24
OptionVotes
NO
YES
129
78
