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Prediction markets for Replicate AI

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

Mar 14, 8:19 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

35.9%chance

18420415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1336

748

Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?

Aug 6, 8:03 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

18.25%chance

598915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5218

3860

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.4%chance

367049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15737

14292

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Apr 22, 9:43 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM

67.19%chance

384159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1552

520

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

82.69%chance

252991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2185

458

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

Jan 1, 1:59 AMDec 24, 5:01 AM

29.57%chance

242467

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1368

747

Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?

Oct 12, 10:33 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

302150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35.93%chance

19227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

981

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Rogue SOTA AI autonomously surviving and replicating for at least three months by EOY 2030?

Sep 27, 7:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Should artists be compensated for their work if it is used to train AI systems capable of replicating their style?

Dec 25, 9:14 PM

560

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