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Prediction markets for Replicate AI

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Is Rosie the dog's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine legitimate?

Mar 14, 8:19 PMDec 31, 8:12 PM

56.46%chance

18119332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

878

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.81%chance

212603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1873

534

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

Jan 1, 1:59 AMDec 24, 5:01 AM

29.6%chance

242466

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1367

747

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Apr 22, 9:43 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM

21.5%chance

342367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1715

685

Will the AI that takes over the universe be a cute anime girl?

Sep 21, 4:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.68%chance

341027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

924

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

36.05%chance

16203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

977

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Should artists be compensated for their work if it is used to train AI systems capable of replicating their style?

Dec 25, 9:14 PM

560

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