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Top stories

US Navy Drone-Boat Push Stalls After Test Crashes and Contract Freeze

US Domestic Policy

US Navy Drone-Boat Push Stalls After Test Crashes and Contract Freeze

Authors

12

13 hours ago

Prediction markets for Replicator

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?

Feb 24, 9:01 AMJan 2, 12:40 AM

1%chance

4173665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6112

838

Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)

May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

42.54%chance

1319816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1262

1250

Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?

Jan 27, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.84%chance

223112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

764

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.81%chance

212603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1873

534

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

Mar 23, 10:07 AMJan 1, 4:00 PM

24%chance

352072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

897

Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?

Jul 4, 10:42 PMJul 4, 10:40 PM

22.67%chance

41063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Nobel Prize by 2026 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?

Aug 1, 6:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.79%chance

19761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

965

Successful replication of 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?

Dec 11, 2:54 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

36.25%chance

4326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1326

754

Nobel Prize by 2035 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?

Aug 1, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.77%chance

12204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

970

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35.98%chance

14110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

979

Will more than 20% of marketing study replications be successful in 2025?

Jan 2, 5:58 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

47.33%chance

265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

948

Replication attempt on 'From e-waste to living space: Flame retardants contaminating household items'?

Dec 11, 2:32 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

50.99%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

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