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Prediction markets for Repls

Will Jake's replacement at Asterisk Magazine (managing editor) also have a name starting with J?

Oct 22, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:11 PM

9.63%chance

4240826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30656

3267

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

Jul 1, 9:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.65%chance

9740216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11388

8790

Will at least 50% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?

Nov 6, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.78%chance

16827560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

877

Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

Feb 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 12:35 PM

24.83%chance

19725213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2105

1925

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.85%chance

1423446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30273

3309

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

6120929

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

2025

55

13

11

11

9

1

0

0

Will Apple launch an iPhone with user-replaceable battery by the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 3:26 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

5.95%chance

16313147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6050

735

Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)

May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

67.32%chance

13611287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

703

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.45%chance

144236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13183

7595

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82.35%chance

392206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3022

1644

Will at least 33% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?

Nov 6, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.04%chance

262106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

834

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

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