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Prediction markets for Repls

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

8.47%chance

1949448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32903

3045

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

Jul 1, 9:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.68%chance

10846120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13178

7570

Will at least 50% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?

Nov 6, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51%chance

17529844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

891

Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

Feb 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 12:35 PM

14.09%chance

20328862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3296

1789

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.3%chance

2414348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19799

5066

Will Apple launch an iPhone with user-replaceable battery by the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 3:26 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

5.84%chance

16913455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

730

Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)

May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

68.75%chance

14111499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1991

677

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

95.33%chance

9910950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2946

41

Will at least 33% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?

Nov 6, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.5%chance

292845

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1396

820

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82.68%chance

392256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3072

1633

Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?

Oct 12, 10:33 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

302150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

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