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Prediction markets for Repls

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

Jul 1, 9:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.26%chance

9840466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11070

9040

Will at least 50% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?

Nov 6, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.63%chance

17027800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

961

Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

Feb 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 12:35 PM

23%chance

19825357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2080

2056

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

10.04%chance

1723720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29965

3343

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

6722441

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2029

2028

Other

2030

2024

2025

61

17

8

6

5

2

0

0

Will Apple launch an iPhone with user-replaceable battery by the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 3:26 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

5.97%chance

16413148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6034

736

Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)

May 4, 12:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

66.9%chance

13611303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1920

710

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.4%chance

198426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15475

6475

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82.35%chance

392206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3022

1644

Will at least 33% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?

Nov 6, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.04%chance

262106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

834

Who will win the special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene?

Feb 5, 12:04 AMOct 9, 11:59 PM

151967

OptionProbability

Clayton Fuller (R)

Shawn Harris (D)

Star Black (R)

Reagan Box (R)

Beau Brown (R)

Marty Brown(R)

Jared Craig(R)

Eric Cunningham (R)

Jim Davis(D)

Tom Gray (R)

Larry Hilley (R)

Jonathan Hobbs (D)

Trey Kelly(R)

Nicky Lama(R)

Colton Moore(R)

Rob Ruszkowski(Independent)

Brian Stover(R)

Megan Strickland(R)

Jim Tully (R)

Jennifer Turnipseed(R)

Andrew Underwood (L)

92

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

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