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Prediction markets for REPORT Act

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.78%chance

538164285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4811

1772

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

Mar 5, 4:55 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

62%chance

14468018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1393

626

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.5%chance

8128760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1926

1868

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Jan 1, 8:11 PMJun 30, 7:10 PM

25.98%chance

12026535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

942

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

175492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10016

2817

Military conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028?

Jan 9, 3:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.87%chance

192644

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1917

1201

Confrontation between ICE and Minnesota police

Jan 25, 2:23 AMApr 1, 1:16 AM

25%chance

142067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.52%chance

161265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1623

616

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

34.63%chance

181220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

640

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

908

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

957

Will Keanu Reeves be reported as having a psychological breakdown at any point while voice acting Shadow the Hedgehog

Jun 18, 7:08 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.18%chance

463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

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