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Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.78%chance

580177503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7072

4892

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

25072880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7852

5623

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026

Jan 21, 6:05 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

56.6%chance

142012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

191794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

869

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

191582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

46.61%chance

211358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

436

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

908

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.53%chance

5170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

952

Will Keanu Reeves be reported as having a psychological breakdown at any point while voice acting Shadow the Hedgehog

Jun 18, 7:08 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.18%chance

463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

988

Will Doctors Without Borders report 16,767,670 outpatient consultations in its 2026 International Activity Report?

Jun 10, 2:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.45%chance

318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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