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Request for Comment News

2028 US Presidential Election winner?

Jan 10, 6:40 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

718789710

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

No 2028 Election

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump (Sr.)

Marco Rubio

Nikki Haley

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Ron DeSantis

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ivanka Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Tulsi Gabbard

Andy Beshear

Tim Walz

Cory Booker

JB Pritzker

Glenn Youngkin

Wes Moore

Ruben Gallego

Elon Musk

Tucker Carlson

Joe Rogan

Kanye West

Tim Scott

Dean Phillips

Mark Kelly

Jimmy Donaldson(MrBeast)

Greg Abbott

Mike Gallagher

Raphael Warnock

Elissa Slotkin

Tammy Baldwin

Jacky Rosen

Shawn Fain

Abigail Spanberger

Mike Johnson

25

21

15

6

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.42%chance

264484823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10407

7511

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

83.97%chance

12427823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11866

9323

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55%chance

8512836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

1081

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.12%chance

3612488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19925

5019

Daily Coinflip

Aug 22, 5:52 AMAug 24, 3:59 AM

51%chance

2610609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10202

9802

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.12%chance

428528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

864

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

27.33%chance

695805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

2205

Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?

May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM

29.39%chance

22310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

941

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

55.16%chance

7277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

14135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

1053

Daily Coinflip 9

Aug 22, 12:32 PMAug 24, 12:00 AM

50%chance

6109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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